Music · resolved market
Will 'Prizefighter' - Mumford and Sons debut week album sales be less than 200k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe03b9dddf35497bf3195f253b241e3c6c593138c39fa9e25dfe0aaf6b930f01e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 31c | 785$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 69c | 669$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 69c | 518$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 55c | 458.08$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.92 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 53c | 357$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 47c | 357$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked Yes | 57c | 347$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 43c | 347$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked No | 31c | 323$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 18c | 282$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…c580backed No | 31c | 257$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked No | 31c | 251$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…7c81backed Yes | 69c | 216$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 54c | 186$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed No | 46c | 186$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…2f5abacked Yes | 69c | 178$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…f692backed No | 31c | 178$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 69c | 172$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…233cbacked No | 31c | 144$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 47c | 117$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed Yes | 53c | 101$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…e5c4backed Yes | 51c | 98.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 46c | 82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 36c | 81.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…e6babacked Yes | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…29b8backed Yes | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 79c | 56.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…e6d1backed Yes | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 35c | 31.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 73c | 26.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Prizefighter' - Mumford and Sons debut week album sales be less than 200k?this page
- Will 'Prizefighter' - Mumford and Sons debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k?No won
- Will 'Prizefighter' - Mumford and Sons debut week album sales be between 250k and 300k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.