TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Buccaneers vs. Rams

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ramsof Buccaneers, Rams
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,694,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,185,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,694,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,325 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7435…a620backed Rams77c1,099,910$846,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252,979.362040%8 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Rams76c658,438$500,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158,025.192050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Buccaneers24c650,000$153,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,50013843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Buccaneers23c384,373$88,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,405.717041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Buccaneers23c350,000$80,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,499.995550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Buccaneers24c300,000$72,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,00010333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Rams78c284,179$221,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,840.9430043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Rams75c210,144$157,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,539.9653253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Buccaneers23c146,953$33,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,850.8616955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Buccaneers24c125,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0007440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Buccaneers25c121,808$30,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,452.0216836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Buccaneers19c118,290$22,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,979.4910026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Rams77c108,960$83,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,060.82470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked Buccaneers1c107,000$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.53724.3%9 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Buccaneers24c100,350$24,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,06412944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Buccaneers24c100,000$24,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,00031240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xca36…1e9cbacked Buccaneers24c100,000$24,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,0002653.8%14 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+59.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Buccaneers23c100,000$23,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,999.9824652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5312…a1f6backed Buccaneers4c74,396$2,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Rams79c74,308$58,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,929.1820755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Buccaneers2c71,682$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.5920026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Buccaneers11c63,011$7,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,082.687626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3413…2657backed Buccaneers24c60,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,399.981513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-72.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Buccaneers24c60,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,399.9630743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Buccaneers19c58,011$11,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,087.2273651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Buccaneers16c57,463$8,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,955.6847738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Buccaneers24c56,591$13,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,581.94450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+139.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Rams75c56,518$42,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,129.5824957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Buccaneers25c55,000$13,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,7505236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4ec…2493backed Buccaneers25c50,000$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,499.991118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Rams76c35,000$26,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,40013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Rams75c33,860$25,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,296.0544652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Rams75c30,486$22,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,646.9586547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Buccaneers24c30,354$7,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,28513142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Rams75c29,866$22,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,466.55453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Buccaneers18c27,985$5,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,023.394944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Buccaneers24c27,083$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,50018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a6…9c48backed Buccaneers20c26,513$5,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1983834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Buccaneers9c26,260$2,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,363219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Buccaneers23c25,000$5,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7507657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Buccaneers23c24,752$5,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,692.962133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae24…07c2backed Buccaneers21c23,000$4,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,776.923941%16 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Buccaneers23c20,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60014342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Buccaneers23c20,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60011146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Buccaneers16c19,965$3,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,190.888946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Buccaneers24c18,982$4,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,490.9526547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Buccaneers23c17,500$4,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,02583147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Buccaneers25c15,805$3,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,967.9353348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Buccaneers23c15,555$3,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,577.6510442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Rams75c13,842$10,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,460.591968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Buccaneers21c13,000$2,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,74718044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rams74c11,773$8,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.1575852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Buccaneers4c11,200$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.9127348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9146…5f30backed Buccaneers23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3002528%7 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Buccaneers23c10,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,32010434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Buccaneers15c9,722$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50016737.7%63 W · 104 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Rams76c9,176$6,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,198.685261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd804…821cbacked Rams76c9,000$6,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1601241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e27…e1d9backed Buccaneers24c9,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Rams78c8,975$6,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.264940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1473…d28bbacked Buccaneers0c8,780$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Buccaneers23c8,696$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Buccaneers24c8,679$2,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0832638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c73…0725backed Buccaneers3c8,523$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4feb…dd3bbacked Buccaneers24c8,500$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Buccaneers11c7,856$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89012039.2%47 W · 73 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Rams77c7,777$5,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,788.635940.7%24 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Buccaneers24c7,500$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80014450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Buccaneers24c7,500$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.938351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Rams75c7,260$5,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.714365.1%28 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Buccaneers17c7,022$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.188532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab9…5b82backed Buccaneers24c6,998$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.541723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b4f…37b8backed Rams77c6,784$5,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.312937.9%11 W · 18 L-8.4wins-0.29per pick67cpaid-49.1%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Buccaneers25c6,763$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.175431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Buccaneers24c6,675$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60220851%106 W · 102 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Rams76c6,577$4,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.1254451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Buccaneers18c6,500$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1808650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9c…45e0backed Buccaneers2c6,002$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.031330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Buccaneers24c6,000$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.4220646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed Buccaneers8c5,833$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.2729059.7%173 W · 117 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Buccaneers1c5,602$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.397526.7%20 W · 55 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0432…1660backed Buccaneers14c5,583$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7805540%22 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Buccaneers24c5,443$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.082540%10 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Buccaneers22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10025744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Buccaneers27c5,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35023937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Buccaneers5c4,851$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.824062.5%25 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Buccaneers24c4,754$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.992520%5 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Buccaneers24c4,750$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1507732.5%25 W · 52 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Rams78c4,386$3,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.932250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b1…f848backed Buccaneers19c4,317$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.8170%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Rams77c4,250$3,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.522349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Buccaneers24c4,167$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9914035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Buccaneers24c4,163$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9999135.2%32 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Buccaneers23c4,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9207152.1%37 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Rams76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.9926650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde13…c84abacked Buccaneers16c3,877$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.49616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-75.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf48…cbbcbacked Buccaneers9c3,700$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6d…c17fbacked Buccaneers13c3,553$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Rams76c3,525$2,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.181450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd88e…ef1bbacked Buccaneers24c3,354$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.93580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+34.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.