TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$599,396
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$515,853

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $599,396 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes9c70,800$6,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,695.153026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes35c57,690$20,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,434.833046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked No66c28,586$18,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,729.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes6c24,930$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.8811522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes27c14,717$3,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,973.554650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed No67c10,964$7,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,651.492250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes4c10,908$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.691844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fee…ed5ebacked Yes7c9,824$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.661361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No74c8,296$6,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.992646.2%12 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes34c7,390$2,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,491.392030%6 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c7,199$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked No79c7,099$5,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,525.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x696a…1afebacked Yes1c7,048$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes9c6,446$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.58156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+326.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes40c6,444$2,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,571.1910740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85a9…bb66backed Yes1c5,927$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes39c5,403$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.132725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes4c4,766$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.0734333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No55c4,348$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.25328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5c…0c2abacked Yes39c4,050$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2113…e380backed No68c3,918$2,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc09c…0909backed Yes32c3,832$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc92…4412backed No68c3,700$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6cf…b558backed Yes32c3,547$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes4c3,412$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.756322.2%14 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b17…aa89backed Yes46c3,397$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.54450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes35c3,320$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.4416632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked Yes26c3,292$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.851030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes32c3,183$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.9319643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed Yes29c2,986$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.931323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes41c2,955$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.5921033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes34c2,874$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.0424433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3db9…8bf7backed No68c2,862$1,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a9…1f4ebacked Yes32c2,763$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,744$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6449411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes1c2,718$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7513919.4%27 W · 112 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No78c2,663$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.232722.2%6 W · 21 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-70.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xc6cb…bbf0backed No72c2,606$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.38475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes33c2,522$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.65836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b79…47e6backed Yes33c2,422$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.1890%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes34c2,403$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.113537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x092c…3175backed Yes43c2,301$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes19c2,224$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.895111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed Yes2c2,104$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.882015%3 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes29c2,092$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.861145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+158.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed No68c2,056$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.243145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes26c2,050$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5331533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-48.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd36…b914backed Yes1c2,034$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-63.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6801283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+37.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes14c1,995$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.92130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes57c1,989$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.248133.3%27 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x007c…82fdbacked Yes34c1,887$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes11c1,879$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9115232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6449…cbb2backed No68c1,876$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes26c1,839$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.8924861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x90ce…1928backed Yes32c1,745$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,649$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6710622.6%24 W · 82 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38ad…80f6backed Yes43c1,638$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes27c1,600$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4264062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No74c1,588$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.543026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3535…e4d0backed Yes8c1,568$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes26c1,475$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.59343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227a…9e95backed Yes32c1,452$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes10c1,441$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes2c1,392$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.842630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-44.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92a3…4a7dbacked Yes46c1,358$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.461758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d4a…621bbacked Yes37c1,331$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,316$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.55303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b2…df60backed Yes38c1,302$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c1,234$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.753910.3%4 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No64c1,222$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.415445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef9f…79eebacked Yes25c1,205$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe102…71dfbacked Yes31c1,134$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.321040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x413a…0008backed Yes29c1,109$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1425…d3e7backed Yes4c1,072$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed Yes40c1,067$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes8c1,050$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes8c1,033$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.342524%6 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes25c1,032$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb799…06a1backed Yes12c1,000$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e40…c89dbacked Yes35c1,000$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.49147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-86.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7903…5149backed No68c984.57$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes35c960$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-69.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes24c910.57$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.796154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes2c887.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No48c880.66$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.983348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes8c825.78$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.415642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cc9…61a7backed Yes69c798.06$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.6620%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No73c796.5$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.614744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes5c726.71$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.382634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes34c716.2$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes26c715.05$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+269.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c700$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.21042.9%3 W · 101 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd14a…a8adbacked Yes31c700$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes2c689.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-57.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No69c682.61$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.26757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+85.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes14c650$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8827222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes5c645$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec4…fa49backed Yes43c644.44$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6358…cc23backed Yes25c634$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.