Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 23 – Feb 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x331272b620ab8935ffcfc54865b0cbbd215fc1a3d0f14b40ded48a0b0c827237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 14c | 3,368$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,899.98 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 76c | 2,019$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.93 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 805.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed No | 34c | 748.98$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.62 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 53c | 594.84$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.62 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 62c | 359$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.66 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 80c | 339.17$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked Yes | 60c | 311.35$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c1…f497backed Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 11c | 264.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 38c | 249.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked Yes | 8c | 199.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.51 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…d942backed Yes | 67c | 147$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 39c | 114.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51d…b897backed Yes | 67c | 103.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 16c | 99.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked Yes | 63c | 70.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 46c | 56.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 47.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 59c | 39.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c4…eb56backed Yes | 64c | 31.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2679…bb54backed Yes | 67c | 29.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Yes | 62c | 20.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 23 – Feb 27?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 23 – Feb 27?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $70-$80 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 23 – Feb 27?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 23 – Feb 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.