Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc284d04deed3eb354b06db15bd35581111aea284823b12cbf5ced277d2127fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 64c | 1,573$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.06 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 44c | 920.62$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.96 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 52c | 668.93$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.89 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 56c | 596.66$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.54 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 30c | 388.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 42c | 360$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 49c | 306.47$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.96 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…f5dfbacked Yes | 34c | 292.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 52c | 204$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked No | 75c | 198.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 30c | 152.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 32c | 137.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 24c | 128.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 34c | 124.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 44c | 107$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 54c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 26c | 102.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 96.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 18c | 94.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 58c | 62.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 50.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…9a86backed No | 67c | 47.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…69ffbacked No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2e…2ed6backed Yes | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…31a4backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…ce6ebacked No | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked No | 71c | 36.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…d942backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 57c | 28.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 25.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 169 | 49.1%83 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…c516backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of February?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $190 end of February?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of February?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.