Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c23bb8b9d3d615be7f8a2dda92e7cef8adbb875686b629fee7b39e6c037d3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 18c | 1,306$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.05 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 18c | 1,241$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.2 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 72c | 774.05$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.86 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 35c | 752.09$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.58 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 15c | 627.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 39c | 392.76$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.3 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 8c | 229.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…f4d1backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked No | 29c | 177.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…dc2abacked No | 26c | 156.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 145.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 63c | 117.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 10c | 116$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…a53ebacked No | 9c | 112.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 100.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…b9d1backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 25c | 88.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 18c | 76.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 26c | 57.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 26c | 47.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…c380backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…4fbdbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 57c | 27.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…f03fbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of February?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $190 end of February?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of February?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.