Movies · resolved market
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63ec8759848599e22fddccaa94f65f4afa1b296289d9f4aded4208aac4e700a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,662 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 58c | 8,993$5,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,185.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked No | 64c | 7,780$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,780.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 2c | 5,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 50c | 3,454$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed Yes | 1c | 3,170$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -88%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 59c | 3,064$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.13 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed No | 50c | 2,837$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 40c | 2,800$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 40c | 2,780$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.32 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes | 59c | 2,588$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfd…8c23backed No | 48c | 2,480$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked Yes | 72c | 2,430$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 50c | 2,348$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.66 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…8fb7backed No | 52c | 1,896$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…ed25backed Yes | 1c | 1,814$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…4239backed Yes | 60c | 1,654$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 55c | 1,592$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.6 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 1,448$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.23 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…c089backed Yes | 62c | 1,438$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 44c | 1,351$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 41c | 1,300$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 42c | 1,275$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.39 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 49c | 1,213$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.07 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked No | 38c | 1,132$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 40c | 1,095$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.29 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed No | 50c | 1,044$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes | 52c | 1,037$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.09 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf781…0a78backed No | 40c | 1,027$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…b0e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…6a99backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +155.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…65bdbacked Yes | 80c | 973.8$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 48c | 948$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.88 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 30c | 909.52$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.26 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 49c | 892$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1055…7dd4backed Yes | 57c | 878.71$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 24c | 777$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.52 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 60c | 733.93$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.69 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 50c | 710$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked No | 50c | 685$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked No | 49c | 681$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.31 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 54c | 678$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Yes | 42c | 676.15$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.46per pick | 60cpaid | -76%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…ec94backed Yes | 52c | 672.04$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed No | 52c | 665$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 46c | 646$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked No | 50c | 646$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 50c | 626.98$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.05 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa627…d14ebacked Yes | 58c | 605.67$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 48c | 589$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e7…b0f7backed No | 39c | 576.92$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 40c | 566.41$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.05 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 48c | 560$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 54c | 559$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 65c | 532.77$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.9 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Yes | 62c | 532.73$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked Yes | 51c | 514$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…df9cbacked Yes | 61c | 500.59$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 47c | 474.94$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.42 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 56c | 469$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Yes | 67c | 465.88$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 51c | 452$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.52 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 51c | 443$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 44c | 439$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 67c | 438$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.43 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked Yes | 51c | 436$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 45c | 426$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 46c | 399.6$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.56 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 54c | 394$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.24 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…e05bbacked Yes | 55c | 381.92$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 46c | 378$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 52c | 369$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.12 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed No | 50c | 365.77$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 41c | 359.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.89 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…14a1backed Yes | 63c | 358.31$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…7a56backed Yes | 64c | 354.67$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 52c | 354$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 40c | 327.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.31 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 54c | 327$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked No | 51c | 326.06$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.43 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 46c | 326$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe73f…1989backed Yes | 63c | 318.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…95b1backed Yes | 63c | 316.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 51c | 310$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…8e5cbacked No | 40c | 307.85$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed Yes | 49c | 301$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…85edbacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 42c | 300$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 293.2$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 54c | 283$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…5548backed Yes | 56c | 277.65$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 49c | 276.03$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.56 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d19…296ebacked Yes | 58c | 275.86$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 49c | 268$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…66a9backed Yes | 58c | 260.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…04a9backed Yes | 60c | 252.44$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Forevergreen win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Retirement Plan win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Girl Who Cried Pearls win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will The Three Sisters win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.