MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde8c0d5a09c8c7864f6437f814ad28b01e2cc01cece0f864baa03db8403bd033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over | 46c | 99,845$45,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,928.71 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Under | 54c | 38,896$21,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,892.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 54c | 26,147$14,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,027.68 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 54c | 20,629$11,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,489.36 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 6,877$3,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,181.7 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 47c | 4,837$2,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,273.43 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 47c | 1,936$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.11 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 54c | 1,669$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.8 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,072$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.93 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 54c | 871.21$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.59 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 56c | 626.41$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.89 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Under | 54c | 540.22$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.5 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 53c | 530.74$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.45 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 497.35$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.78 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 446.45$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 54c | 443.74$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.16 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Under | 54c | 360.15$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.67 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391b…a066backed Under | 54c | 360.15$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed Under | 55c | 318.44$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.3 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 39c | 298.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…83d8backed Under | 54c | 271.3$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdca…966abacked Over | 47c | 268.19$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…1c26backed Over | 47c | 186.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Over | 47c | 183.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Under | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 47c | 175.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 162.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 47c | 123.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 46c | 110.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Over | 45c | 105.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Over | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Under | 55c | 99.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 54c | 97.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 54c | 94.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 23c | 76.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 64c | 61.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Under | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Over | 47c | 45.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 57c | 42.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 57c | 42.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 57c | 42.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 55c | 38.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 54c | 38.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 62c | 35.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 46c | 31.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…9d38backed Over | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd25…46eabacked Under | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 76c | 28.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 61c | 19.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Under | 56c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Under | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. New York YankeesAthletics won
- Athletics vs. New York Yankees: O/U 1.5Under won
- Athletics vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Under won
- Athletics vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletics vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. New York YankeesNo Run won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.