TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$247,489
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$258,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,489 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad2b…f091backed Seattle Mariners62c38,636$23,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,797.591353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd21…a494backed Houston Astros39c15,000$5,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,849.8711146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Houston Astros40c13,043$5,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,217.171,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros38c9,292$3,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,561.045,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Houston Astros38c8,539$3,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,247.1265050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Seattle Mariners68c7,261$4,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,327.121,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Houston Astros2c6,745$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.151,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c94…5939backed Houston Astros38c4,839$1,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,838.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Houston Astros35c4,467$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.9219239.1%75 W · 117 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Houston Astros6c4,419$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.8116814.3%24 W · 144 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0140…9510backed Houston Astros40c4,401$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.265550.9%28 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Seattle Mariners60c4,004$2,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.4292054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Seattle Mariners60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Seattle Mariners61c3,888$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,503.521,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros25c3,547$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.982,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Houston Astros1c3,194$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.175149%25 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Houston Astros40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Houston Astros12c2,627$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.691,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4078…99cbbacked Seattle Mariners60c2,592$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Houston Astros39c2,564$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00028042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cea…b12dbacked Houston Astros40c2,410$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9644740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Seattle Mariners61c2,328$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.7613349.6%66 W · 67 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Houston Astros38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76033852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Seattle Mariners63c1,962$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.2416547.3%78 W · 87 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Houston Astros2c1,947$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.254754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros38c1,769$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.516,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Houston Astros39c1,757$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.1170735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Seattle Mariners62c1,749$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.731149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc08…8fccbacked Seattle Mariners61c1,585$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.14560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners65c1,554$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.0410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf402…df7cbacked Seattle Mariners63c1,550$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.67850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Houston Astros15c1,301$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.191,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Houston Astros15c1,301$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1951555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Houston Astros15c1,292$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.731,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Houston Astros15c1,288$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1745246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Houston Astros15c1,252$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.7713343.6%58 W · 75 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Seattle Mariners61c1,201$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.2836649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros34c1,185$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.139,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Houston Astros39c1,168$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.688366.3%55 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62c6…55acbacked Houston Astros40c1,141$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.5910143.6%44 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Seattle Mariners61c1,114$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.8327345.4%124 W · 149 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Houston Astros39c1,110$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.361,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Seattle Mariners60c1,104$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.7461947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf869…1f48backed Houston Astros39c1,069$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+49.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Seattle Mariners60c1,052$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.9532348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Seattle Mariners60c1,044$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.7417248.8%84 W · 88 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked Seattle Mariners62c1,031$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.553246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Houston Astros39c1,030$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.891855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Seattle Mariners61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39022851.3%117 W · 111 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8716…57c8backed Houston Astros38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Houston Astros40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010842.6%46 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Houston Astros40c964$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.644451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Houston Astros35c961$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.353847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Houston Astros27c860.4$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.6448354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros39c844.53$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.921,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Houston Astros3c840.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.547339.7%29 W · 44 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Houston Astros10c822.81$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3860941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Houston Astros38c766.31$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.21,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Houston Astros39c750$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.57852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Seattle Mariners65c740.82$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.8916453%87 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce53…834bbacked Houston Astros39c636.06$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.079063.3%57 W · 33 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ede…2de3backed Seattle Mariners62c564.08$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.351770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed Houston Astros39c554.97$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.341,27743.1%550 W · 727 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Houston Astros39c546.07$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.581,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Houston Astros38c543.67$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.211451.8%59 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4a…3e8bbacked Houston Astros4c523.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2a…1f86backed Houston Astros2c519.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Seattle Mariners61c512.72$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.9619848.5%96 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed Seattle Mariners60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+26.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Houston Astros38c499.93$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9785952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Seattle Mariners62c488.6$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.6741152.3%215 W · 196 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Seattle Mariners61c480.3$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.3230844.2%136 W · 172 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Houston Astros39c479.97$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.091,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Houston Astros40c478.6$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.8436440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x852f…3aaebacked Houston Astros40c472.36$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.947341.1%30 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32de…ce27backed Houston Astros39c470$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.263644.7%284 W · 352 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…fb90backed Houston Astros35c448.72$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.064443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Houston Astros12c429.61$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.751,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0480…92babacked Houston Astros4c424.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.851520%3 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-61.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe08…10ebbacked Houston Astros40c408.16$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.261855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros3c400.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.074,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Seattle Mariners62c390.88$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.5316644.6%74 W · 92 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Seattle Mariners61c375.99$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6450751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x982e…add6backed Houston Astros5c367.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0733228.3%94 W · 238 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x436b…bda3backed Seattle Mariners77c364.57$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Houston Astros38c350.83$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8267849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Seattle Mariners62c345.24$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.1917961.5%110 W · 69 L+16.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2a7…ba6ebacked Houston Astros40c341.26$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe1…6237backed Houston Astros15c331.28$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.331361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Seattle Mariners61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.851,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe00b…256fbacked Seattle Mariners62c315.23$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7910850.9%55 W · 53 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Houston Astros9c303.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5221153.6%113 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed Seattle Mariners60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1202441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Seattle Mariners61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1171,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Houston Astros6c290.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4478146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55af…6a1bbacked Houston Astros40c289.2$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6836345.7%166 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e3…37b1backed Seattle Mariners61c289.07$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.743447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Houston Astros15c284.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3765651.2%336 W · 320 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Seattle Mariners72c283.16$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.297051.4%36 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros39c280.22$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.462,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.