TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,673

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,764 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Seattle Mariners51c8,000$4,080 inLost-$4,0809035.6%32 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd21…a494backed Houston Astros49c5,797$2,850 inWon+$2,946.9711146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Houston Astros49c1,956$959 inWon+$997.731,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners50c923.44$462 inLost-$461.724,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros49c581.64$285 inWon+$296.645,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Houston Astros49c296.76$145 inWon+$151.357346.6%34 W · 39 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Houston Astros55c136.58$75 inWon+$61.231,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd281…d824backed Seattle Mariners44c63.72$28 inLost-$28.0410449%51 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5741…fb99backed Seattle Mariners44c48.32$21 inLost-$21.265052%26 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Houston Astros49c48.28$24 inWon+$24.6348339.8%192 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c8…9487backed Houston Astros66c37.39$25 inWon+$12.7727053.7%145 W · 125 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros77c30.14$23 inWon+$6.792,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros70c23.06$16 inWon+$7.031,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.