MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e58de84fc758764e79ec1812dade23540038eb1afec474fab24fcff628db037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 2,466$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.76 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Houston Astros | 57c | 2,100$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.98 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 57c | 2,008$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.28 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…f1bfbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 734.24$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.44 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Houston Astros | 58c | 630.72$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.81 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 590.68$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.15 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 579.84$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.71 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…5098backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 439.27$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 414.92$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.48 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 56c | 385.64$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 181.53$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Houston Astros | 57c | 166.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 56c | 145.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 140.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 122.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 261 | 48.3%126 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 101.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 98.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Houston Astros | 57c | 91.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Houston Astros | 57c | 89.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 73.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 62.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Houston Astros | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 49.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Houston Astros | 58c | 45.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…1754backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 44.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 43.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Houston Astros | 58c | 43.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Houston Astros | 58c | 43.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…3affbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 35.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…e414backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Houston Astros | 57c | 30.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 29.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 27.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Mariners | 76c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 23.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Houston Astros | 57c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…a8ebbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 20.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…e4f4backed Houston Astros | 58c | 18.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 17.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-5.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.