TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Top Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Top Esportsof Top Esports, EDward Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$640,491
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$750,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $640,491 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd967…1409backed Top Esports79c24,285$19,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,019.0112160.3%73 W · 48 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked EDward Gaming26c23,669$6,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,067.3457246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf485…03aebacked EDward Gaming23c20,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.983030%9 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Top Esports77c15,942$12,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,666.5564155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Top Esports80c15,235$12,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,120.31,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fb…675ebacked EDward Gaming20c13,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6002356.5%13 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+45%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdac3…66d8backed EDward Gaming17c12,913$2,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,247.317052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d87…24d0backed EDward Gaming1c10,625$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103461.8%21 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked EDward Gaming23c10,233$2,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,396.5325944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed EDward Gaming0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed EDward Gaming3c10,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed EDward Gaming21c10,000$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,102.8955639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked EDward Gaming11c9,180$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.741,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed EDward Gaming17c9,013$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.148533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x203b…46e1backed EDward Gaming24c8,997$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,145.736755.2%37 W · 30 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed EDward Gaming21c6,370$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.21,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed EDward Gaming32c6,250$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9951348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5997…0beebacked Top Esports78c6,080$4,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.743745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ef…ba25backed EDward Gaming18c5,944$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.58043.8%35 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce7d…898ebacked EDward Gaming16c5,866$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.67054.3%38 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed EDward Gaming24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20026729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9942…f1abbacked EDward Gaming1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50711.4%1 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid+12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa08f…745bbacked EDward Gaming21c4,665$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.925255.8%29 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Top Esports71c4,444$3,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.7651044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed EDward Gaming15c4,403$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.672,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf030…12e2backed Top Esports80c4,167$3,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.3113371.4%95 W · 38 L+23.5wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Top Esports71c4,137$2,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.9929443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeed6…d8dabacked EDward Gaming26c3,954$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.852729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked EDward Gaming28c3,800$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.9928642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked EDward Gaming22c3,200$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70432555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Top Esports79c3,045$2,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.691,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fe…211ebacked EDward Gaming20c2,951$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick28cpaid+13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x071e…0d01backed EDward Gaming18c2,899$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5205137.3%19 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed EDward Gaming18c2,897$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.3839162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed EDward Gaming24c2,748$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.754055%22 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0587…c40bbacked EDward Gaming11c2,688$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.4315446.8%72 W · 82 L+16.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked EDward Gaming22c2,680$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.5620546.8%96 W · 109 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Top Esports75c2,613$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.8158559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed EDward Gaming23c2,600$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6101,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed EDward Gaming6c2,485$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0737948.3%183 W · 196 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Top Esports79c2,420$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.6260354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Top Esports78c2,351$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.2855844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed Top Esports77c2,300$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5291,02148%490 W · 531 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Top Esports74c2,222$1,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.1762158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Top Esports78c2,077$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.0367553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d66…ff1dbacked EDward Gaming35c2,060$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.941225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Top Esports72c2,037$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.3911750.4%59 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Top Esports74c2,024$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.291,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked EDward Gaming21c2,020$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.832,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Top Esports76c2,000$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.6196250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed EDward Gaming22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1680…490dbacked EDward Gaming24c1,798$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4334660.9%28 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed EDward Gaming3c1,795$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8538624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Top Esports72c1,775$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49748149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e03…040fbacked Top Esports74c1,673$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.468047.5%38 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed EDward Gaming6c1,662$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2714831.1%46 W · 102 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf64e…a1ddbacked EDward Gaming15c1,642$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.238453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd12d…f0dbbacked EDward Gaming26c1,634$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4205468.5%37 W · 17 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed EDward Gaming24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked EDward Gaming23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34520147.3%95 W · 106 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958b…50cebacked EDward Gaming25c1,500$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.75034%17 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x880d…50b8backed Top Esports68c1,437$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.821241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked EDward Gaming23c1,411$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.524856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed EDward Gaming23c1,374$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.976848.5%33 W · 35 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed Top Esports77c1,373$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.7928836.8%106 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked EDward Gaming9c1,346$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.281,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Top Esports77c1,295$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.8570162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37a4…8260backed Top Esports77c1,282$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.772050%10 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Top Esports77c1,267$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.3363944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed Top Esports77c1,169$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.8326349%129 W · 134 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9226…5a1cbacked Top Esports76c1,130$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.27279.2%57 W · 15 L+14.9wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+43%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x47c1…024dbacked EDward Gaming18c1,096$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.068952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed EDward Gaming23c1,088$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2419041.6%79 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed EDward Gaming4c1,081$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8412326%32 W · 91 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked EDward Gaming12c1,020$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.722,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked EDward Gaming24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24013137.4%49 W · 82 L-11.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf2de…e4bdbacked EDward Gaming4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50fa…907fbacked EDward Gaming4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010023%23 W · 77 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+68.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed EDward Gaming20c999.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20096452.7%508 W · 456 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb53…7b74backed Top Esports77c999.97$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9948763.2%308 W · 179 L+20.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed EDward Gaming22c999.97$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9922746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed EDward Gaming26c982.17$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.641,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed EDward Gaming13c915.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.531,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed EDward Gaming28c892.86$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25016745.5%76 W · 91 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa6…9361backed EDward Gaming24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014834.5%51 W · 97 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Top Esports78c808.07$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2289347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17b9…9bf6backed Top Esports78c800$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1766743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked EDward Gaming9c766$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.432,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed EDward Gaming5c699.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked Top Esports78c682.87$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.9626765.9%176 W · 91 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8d0…f87ebacked EDward Gaming7c675.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5039940.4%161 W · 238 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed EDward Gaming15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10055145%248 W · 303 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd4e…7aefbacked Top Esports75c663.66$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.912650%13 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbd…c385backed Top Esports73c654.87$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.8716662.7%104 W · 62 L-0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe480…ee6cbacked EDward Gaming23c654$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.425850%29 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Top Esports78c649$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.789056.7%51 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed EDward Gaming23c648.98$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.268130.9%25 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Top Esports79c620.96$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.0333139.9%132 W · 199 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x040d…417abacked EDward Gaming10c615.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607857.7%45 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb40…d56dbacked Top Esports80c613.31$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.8310651.9%55 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.