TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Top Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Top Esportsof Top Esports, EDward Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$636,343
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$732,391

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $636,343 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 288 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e3e…f882backed EDward Gaming5c99,904$5,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,122.591,09638.9%426 W · 670 L-47.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed EDward Gaming19c44,305$8,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,634.911,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdac3…66d8backed EDward Gaming13c23,939$3,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0897052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf485…03aebacked EDward Gaming22c20,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.973030%9 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c8…8f5abacked EDward Gaming25c14,563$3,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,574.092161.9%13 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+47.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x84fb…675ebacked EDward Gaming18c12,800$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303.992356.5%13 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+45%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Top Esports76c11,627$8,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.661,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed EDward Gaming9c11,384$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.8725546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Top Esports80c9,500$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9002,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Top Esports75c9,131$6,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,271.5737245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked EDward Gaming23c8,384$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.421,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed EDward Gaming15c8,127$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.432,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff94…8c4bbacked Top Esports79c8,049$6,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,655.89862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked EDward Gaming10c7,229$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.8967553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Top Esports78c6,985$5,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.6217444.8%78 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed EDward Gaming15c6,766$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.6889347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked EDward Gaming27c6,267$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.3425944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed EDward Gaming23c6,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3801,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed EDward Gaming21c5,660$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.9831644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Top Esports78c5,083$3,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1197463.5%47 W · 27 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9942…f1abbacked EDward Gaming1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50711.4%1 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid+12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Top Esports76c5,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20029443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99ef…ba25backed EDward Gaming18c4,790$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.487843.6%34 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880d…50b8backed EDward Gaming23c4,466$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.221241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf64e…a1ddbacked Top Esports79c4,265$3,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.928453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x565c…878dbacked EDward Gaming23c3,886$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.8413530.4%41 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Top Esports78c3,862$3,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.021,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeed6…d8dabacked EDward Gaming27c3,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.732729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe37e…6d97backed Top Esports77c3,491$2,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.968860.2%53 W · 35 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked EDward Gaming19c2,780$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.1375630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed EDward Gaming12c2,748$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.81,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked EDward Gaming18c2,713$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.7263352%329 W · 304 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed EDward Gaming10c2,500$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2541,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed EDward Gaming20c2,394$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.992,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked EDward Gaming16c2,257$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.534151.6%176 W · 165 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42a1…f140backed EDward Gaming20c2,200$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4403545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Top Esports79c2,039$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.4398956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Top Esports77c2,016$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.641,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed EDward Gaming24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48011140.5%45 W · 66 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed Top Esports77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46028836.8%106 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed EDward Gaming22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401,20335.7%430 W · 773 L+6.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Top Esports77c1,941$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.1560354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Top Esports77c1,759$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.571,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked EDward Gaming21c1,673$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.152,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0587…c40bbacked EDward Gaming26c1,511$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.5615446.8%72 W · 82 L+16.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x215a…7275backed EDward Gaming8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12015435.1%54 W · 100 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x958b…50cebacked EDward Gaming23c1,500$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.795034%17 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Top Esports76c1,445$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.3862158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed08…e082backed Top Esports77c1,429$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.5719860.1%119 W · 79 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Top Esports78c1,427$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.8763344.5%282 W · 351 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Top Esports75c1,334$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.171,66059.5%987 W · 673 L+97.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bcc…b4fabacked EDward Gaming25c1,331$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.9223549.4%116 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed EDward Gaming24c1,300$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3072,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Top Esports78c1,282$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.0538462%238 W · 146 L-0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa08f…745bbacked Top Esports78c1,278$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.565255.8%29 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed EDward Gaming15c1,276$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.123,11933.7%1,052 W · 2,067 L-151.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed EDward Gaming11c1,267$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13950344.9%226 W · 277 L+1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed Top Esports78c1,258$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.0816162.1%100 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x483b…f0a3backed Top Esports77c1,200$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.0111563.5%73 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed EDward Gaming1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Top Esports78c1,184$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.4846258.4%270 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Top Esports77c1,162$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.2655844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed EDward Gaming15c1,122$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.571,93048.2%930 W · 1,000 L+24.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50fa…907fbacked EDward Gaming11c1,003$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3810023%23 W · 77 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+68.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed EDward Gaming2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked EDward Gaming21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21013137.4%49 W · 82 L-11.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed Top Esports75c999.99$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.5355639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x581a…e40dbacked Top Esports77c920.97$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.827354.8%40 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be4…1f20backed EDward Gaming22c919.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20052747.6%251 W · 276 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde82…705dbacked EDward Gaming22c917.14$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.773540%14 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa75b…772cbacked EDward Gaming22c873.76$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.4812641.3%52 W · 74 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed EDward Gaming16c834.06$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.921,04450.4%526 W · 518 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce7d…898ebacked EDward Gaming20c815.35$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.077054.3%38 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2c…83afbacked EDward Gaming1c800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114202.6%11 W · 409 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed Top Esports80c800$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16025949%127 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed Top Esports77c800$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1841,02148%490 W · 531 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e3a…130ebacked EDward Gaming22c699.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15421523.3%50 W · 165 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28fd…00d0backed Top Esports74c675.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.6825259.1%149 W · 103 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6863…300bbacked Top Esports78c640$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.88456%47 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf023…3cc4backed EDward Gaming19c636.68$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.976643.9%29 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a26…1589backed Top Esports77c636.36$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.3619147.1%90 W · 101 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed EDward Gaming20c626.98$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1238130.9%25 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked Top Esports77c600$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13826765.9%176 W · 91 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed EDward Gaming27c572.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.711,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecab…f7ecbacked EDward Gaming3c567.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4417712.4%22 W · 155 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x257c…a408backed EDward Gaming18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036452.7%192 W · 172 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad0…6187backed Top Esports77c544.27$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.1816443.3%71 W · 93 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed EDward Gaming25c521$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.253330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a59…68fbbacked EDward Gaming19c519.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.728241.5%34 W · 48 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed EDward Gaming17c512.03$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9569741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed EDward Gaming15c510$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.53438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Top Esports75c506$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.562151.4%319 W · 302 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Top Esports79c505.3$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.117663.2%48 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd12d…f0dbbacked EDward Gaming20c501$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005468.5%37 W · 17 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed EDward Gaming23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11576953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed EDward Gaming9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27c7…ba3ebacked Top Esports80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.4533069.7%230 W · 100 L+28.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed EDward Gaming22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101,39743.7%611 W · 786 L-4.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Top Esports77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1157753.2%41 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed Top Esports75c499.99$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12547047.4%223 W · 247 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.