Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5445bee557655bc2f39b40f62a27b59599ea4129a0da45963fe17b8e9e10d253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 35c | 21,250$7,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,437.48 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…b2b6backed Under | 65c | 20,000$12,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,001 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 65c | 734.12$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.94 | 1,113 | 39%434 W · 679 L | -44.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 33c | 319$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 341 | 51.6%176 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e58…5749backed Under | 65c | 297.69$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 25c | 289.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 978 | 54.4%532 W · 446 L | +48.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 65c | 235$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 549 | 34.8%191 W · 358 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 66c | 146.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Under | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 273 | 56.8%155 W · 118 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…96f0backed Over | 40c | 121.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…9c8fbacked Under | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 64c | 94.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 36c | 83.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 264 | 40.9%108 W · 156 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb445…e4a3backed Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 145 | 51.7%75 W · 70 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffcb…d630backed Under | 65c | 79.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 60c | 76.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 1,971 | 30.5%601 W · 1,370 L | -170.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Under | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 637 | 42.7%272 W · 365 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over | 25c | 62.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 64c | 60.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…4a0abacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…026dbacked Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 64c | 41.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 453 | 38%172 W · 281 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…b23ebacked Over | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,024 | 45%461 W · 563 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Under | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Under | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Under | 65c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 447 | 45.2%202 W · 245 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 69c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- First Blood in Game 1?EDward Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 2?Top Esports won
- Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)Top Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTop Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.