Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef26ed372e1a836d65d11a00f014724a6aee39e883201725210f09fe14ffced5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof 1win, PARIVISION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked 1win | 19c | 6,609$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.53 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…5eeebacked 1win | 19c | 5,057$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.22 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked 1win | 19c | 3,937$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.77 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285d…37c3backed 1win | 17c | 2,157$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked 1win | 11c | 1,500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed 1win | 6c | 1,150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 376 | 32.2%121 W · 255 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed 1win | 19c | 957.51$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.76 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed 1win | 14c | 835.65$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked 1win | 12c | 811.49$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfee…ed1fbacked 1win | 23c | 804$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.92 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -14.0wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -52%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed 1win | 18c | 778$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 9c | 746.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed 1win | 19c | 623.13$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…d156backed 1win | 8c | 569.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 1win | 8c | 562.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 1,691 | 41.4%700 W · 991 L | -40.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked 1win | 18c | 498.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed 1win | 14c | 494$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…396dbacked 1win | 20c | 485.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2c03backed 1win | 17c | 471$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed 1win | 10c | 415$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b67…e56cbacked 1win | 21c | 354.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked 1win | 19c | 347.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed 1win | 7c | 324.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed 1win | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed 1win | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 1win | 22c | 266.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked 1win | 19c | 257.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…9b65backed 1win | 15c | 256.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked 1win | 15c | 218.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed 1win | 10c | 201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked 1win | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,270 | 45.1%573 W · 697 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…fd05backed 1win | 17c | 188.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…706cbacked 1win | 20c | 185$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed 1win | 15c | 167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 1win | 19c | 155.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 1,255 | 49.6%623 W · 632 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…4f23backed 1win | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 1win | 8c | 138.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,443 | 48.7%703 W · 740 L | +29.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked 1win | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed PARIVISION | 77c | 129.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed PARIVISION | 80c | 127.81$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 711 | 42.6%303 W · 408 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked 1win | 16c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 675 | 46.1%311 W · 364 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae16…7111backed 1win | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed 1win | 19c | 107.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 535 | 33.8%181 W · 354 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…44b5backed 1win | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked 1win | 18c | 95.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed 1win | 19c | 84.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed PARIVISION | 80c | 73.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed 1win | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed 1win | 20c | 50.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed PARIVISION | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1win | 21c | 48.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed PARIVISION | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)PARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.