Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x502e7cd1d8b1ac87808f206c3e94b1f219b3612b16bef6dce9e6fd7b7838f96f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Over | 33c | 2,253$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.52 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 67c | 1,305$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.64 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 67c | 599.98$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.99 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 67c | 554.96$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.14 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…0939backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 33c | 240$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 33c | 119.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…eabbbacked Under | 54c | 47.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 67c | 34.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 65c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d59…ee16backed Under | 64c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…9bb3backed Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)PARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.