Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3bf8a7dcf8e9eae78bcde1db711e5b1f7db0e74bf5b8337f14c002c7f44b5c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked 1win | 46c | 5,731$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.74 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…5eeebacked 1win | 46c | 4,708$2,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.85 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed PARIVISION | 53c | 3,833$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.62 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked PARIVISION | 54c | 2,741$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.93 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed PARIVISION | 54c | 2,276$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.35 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece6…c4bfbacked PARIVISION | 52c | 1,131$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9de…7310backed 1win | 49c | 1,010$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…03d0backed PARIVISION | 52c | 908.64$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…13a1backed PARIVISION | 53c | 533$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…aeb7backed PARIVISION | 53c | 525$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed 1win | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked 1win | 48c | 408.65$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.15 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed PARIVISION | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed PARIVISION | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed PARIVISION | 54c | 277.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.91 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed PARIVISION | 54c | 249.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked PARIVISION | 55c | 177.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed PARIVISION | 53c | 156.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked PARIVISION | 55c | 150.91$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed 1win | 48c | 127.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed PARIVISION | 54c | 112.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed 1win | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed 1win | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked PARIVISION | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed 1win | 46c | 25.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1win | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed PARIVISION | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.