TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Top Esports, Bilibili Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$500,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$534,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,958 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e3e…f882backed Top Esports16c105,294$16,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,986.571,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Bilibili Gaming66c76,705$50,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,286.3296048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b1…6dfcbacked Bilibili Gaming65c40,000$26,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,851.023363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xecb7…e8e5backed Top Esports0c26,195$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.95462.2%1 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-84.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Top Esports34c23,055$7,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,838.551,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5177…2d20backed Top Esports0c22,450$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Top Esports35c21,080$7,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,378.4920036.5%73 W · 127 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x282f…7c4ebacked Top Esports34c20,000$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,80014342%60 W · 83 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Top Esports33c16,570$5,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,464.6969741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Bilibili Gaming64c13,462$8,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,846.2518971.4%135 W · 54 L+11.1wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Bilibili Gaming65c11,627$7,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,094.6859554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Bilibili Gaming63c11,535$7,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,210.881,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7986…baa5backed Top Esports33c10,479$3,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441.3721347.9%102 W · 111 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Top Esports34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.9832234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf184…c2d7backed Bilibili Gaming65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.9714553.1%77 W · 68 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Bilibili Gaming66c9,400$6,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1967463.5%47 W · 27 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked Top Esports4c8,353$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.396549.2%32 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Bilibili Gaming67c8,000$5,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6401,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Top Esports32c7,883$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.82,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Top Esports25c7,671$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.1243442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Top Esports34c6,800$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300.35637.5%21 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Top Esports35c6,667$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.331361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Bilibili Gaming66c6,025$3,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,048.5529443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4ae…8eadbacked Top Esports34c5,800$1,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9724245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2383…072fbacked Bilibili Gaming61c5,283$3,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.416744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Top Esports0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016845.2%76 W · 92 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bilibili Gaming65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75090348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d85…2fc6backed Bilibili Gaming66c4,545$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.452161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a4c…068abacked Top Esports19c4,535$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.9910335.9%37 W · 66 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Top Esports36c4,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44049940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Top Esports29c4,000$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.481,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Top Esports34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.959341.9%39 W · 54 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71d6…7248backed Top Esports4c3,333$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.324617.4%8 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed Top Esports34c3,099$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.8628836.8%106 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d76…1298backed Bilibili Gaming66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0204845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Top Esports35c2,860$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00130321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Top Esports35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009862.2%61 W · 37 L+9.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9267…869ebacked Top Esports35c2,442$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.71533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-38%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6db8…b4c1backed Top Esports16c2,346$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.755824.1%14 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Top Esports35c2,179$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76075630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e58…5749backed Bilibili Gaming68c2,128$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.976858.8%40 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed Top Esports35c2,067$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.5116346.6%76 W · 87 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Top Esports36c2,042$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.122,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Top Esports36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72045338%172 W · 281 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed Top Esports35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70047047.4%223 W · 247 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Bilibili Gaming66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68017241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Top Esports34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6801346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cd…3897backed Bilibili Gaming66c1,950$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.12564%16 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+30.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Top Esports34c1,805$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.7447533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Top Esports34c1,801$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.2939951.1%204 W · 195 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Top Esports33c1,800$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59417439.1%68 W · 106 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39eb…79f4backed Bilibili Gaming77c1,663$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.084949%24 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…9bedbacked Bilibili Gaming66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.152665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid+26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked Bilibili Gaming65c1,510$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.4714160.3%85 W · 56 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Top Esports34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51026729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e1…b412backed Top Esports36c1,347$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.89425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb39b…9826backed Top Esports35c1,289$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4512744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x179d…26abbacked Top Esports34c1,200$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40853829.9%161 W · 377 L-19.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Top Esports35c1,047$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.5263944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d80…e49fbacked Top Esports28c1,012$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.593528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Bilibili Gaming64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Bilibili Gaming65c999.99$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3502962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Bilibili Gaming77c996.13$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.5797854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eae…a3f0backed Top Esports14c982$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.484010%4 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x257a…b42abacked Top Esports35c951.43$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33318356.8%104 W · 79 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3198…8b1fbacked Top Esports3c942.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31547.4%4 W · 50 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcda7…af42backed Bilibili Gaming66c909.09$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.093360.6%20 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Bilibili Gaming76c873.42$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.342,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90e7…ac8ebacked Top Esports34c857.67$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.5414442.4%61 W · 83 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Top Esports34c854$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.366552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Top Esports36c800$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2881,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Top Esports3c769.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.951,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed Top Esports34c748$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3222240.1%89 W · 133 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Bilibili Gaming67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.279957.6%57 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9deb…536fbacked Top Esports26c731.33$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.021323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick52cpaid-57%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed Top Esports26c730.2$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1931643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a3…9e12backed Top Esports35c714.27$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.992065%13 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+41.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xadef…8fffbacked Top Esports3c700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Top Esports23c699.95$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.2477741.7%324 W · 453 L-27.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Bilibili Gaming65c697.4$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.0996054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0160…1224backed Bilibili Gaming64c688$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.6823639.8%94 W · 142 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Top Esports35c632.66$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4315645.5%71 W · 85 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d9f…0c25backed Top Esports35c600$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21028353%150 W · 133 L+28.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+32.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked Top Esports34c599.99$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20648844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Bilibili Gaming66c599.81$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.9464749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb904…3ef8backed Bilibili Gaming67c595.06$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.371675%12 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed Top Esports35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20055145%248 W · 303 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Top Esports35c567.74$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.713330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x086c…4932backed Bilibili Gaming66c563.9$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.737154.9%39 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x418a…1b82backed Top Esports18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005056%28 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Top Esports16c555.55$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8940726.8%109 W · 298 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Top Esports36c540.54$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.5921751.2%111 W · 106 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Top Esports39c535.82$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4494444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bae…ae9fbacked Bilibili Gaming66c515.53$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.2824563.7%156 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda75…e183backed Top Esports35c508.57$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1781338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9d4…f843backed Bilibili Gaming80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1008344.6%37 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…d5e5backed Bilibili Gaming66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1704452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Bilibili Gaming72c500$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13985849.5%425 W · 433 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd7…6497backed Top Esports36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97f2…d56fbacked Bilibili Gaming66c500$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1722580%20 W · 5 L+6.0wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+44.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.