Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd05bdec9435e91fed74e9aa5ef0fa46516a3497e36687ad682f87215b6213121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Under | 53c | 3,594$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.19 | 969 | 48.6%471 W · 498 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…a17abacked Over | 47c | 2,063$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…4d60backed Under | 55c | 912.42$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.42 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 765.15$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.27 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 734.54$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.54 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 47c | 529.78$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.97 | 1,143 | 38.8%444 W · 699 L | -46.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Over | 49c | 431$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.01 | 1,097 | 52.3%574 W · 523 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 47c | 421.1$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.38 | 1,616 | 43.8%708 W · 908 L | -74.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 51c | 348.36$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.04 | 343 | 51.3%176 W · 167 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 19c | 343.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 1,004 | 54.5%547 W · 457 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 266 | 41%109 W · 157 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef07…bb26backed Over | 47c | 242.55$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 205 | 51.7%106 W · 99 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f3…b3eebacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 52c | 188$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 2,984 | 44.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L | -94.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc920…7914backed Over | 48c | 146.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…026dbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…d2babacked Over | 47c | 102.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Over | 47c | 73.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 650 | 43.1%280 W · 370 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 48c | 65.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 2,540 | 39.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L | -79.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 2,707 | 35.9%972 W · 1,735 L | -152.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Over | 47c | 40.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,384 | 31.3%433 W · 951 L | -133.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…38f8backed Under | 60c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 60c | 18.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2,020 | 30.5%617 W · 1,403 L | -172.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.