TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Golden Knights vs. Ducks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Ducks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,259,751
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,363,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,259,751 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 731 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd65…ee96backed Ducks53c121,937$65,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,0001650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Ducks51c105,415$54,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,182.5828749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Golden Knights47c94,515$44,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,881.4510545.7%48 W · 57 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Golden Knights48c85,125$41,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,116.031,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Ducks45c82,142$36,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,705.648657%49 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Ducks49c53,569$26,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,249.0167051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bec…b215backed Golden Knights47c46,243$21,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,508.816442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Ducks35c42,141$14,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,7141741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Golden Knights62c41,486$25,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,968.882343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Golden Knights49c40,000$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,399.9822443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Ducks51c31,821$16,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,220.441060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Ducks32c30,745$9,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,769.592433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Golden Knights49c30,000$14,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,299.994358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Ducks23c21,321$4,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,903.772040%8 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Golden Knights47c21,277$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,276.62240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-30.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Golden Knights49c20,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,199.9912950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Golden Knights61c19,857$12,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,731.7130259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xef50…e3bdbacked Golden Knights50c19,685$9,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,836.681250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Ducks34c19,615$6,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,654.0989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Ducks49c19,210$9,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,449.471,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Ducks50c19,177$9,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,588.419157.1%52 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Ducks36c18,748$6,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,819.197038.6%27 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Golden Knights50c14,950$7,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,4754161%25 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked Golden Knights47c14,900$7,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,8971947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Ducks33c14,400$4,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8202352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Golden Knights50c13,500$6,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7953246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ducks27c12,253$3,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,336.912,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Golden Knights50c12,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Golden Knights48c12,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3004949%24 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Golden Knights50c11,953$5,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,976.515949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Ducks51c11,484$5,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,856.8332151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Golden Knights63c11,404$7,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,214.681553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc788…8545backed Ducks50c9,800$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Ducks52c9,163$4,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,778.211,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce8…31f1backed Ducks24c8,254$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Ducks1c8,072$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.211895.3%10 W · 179 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Golden Knights49c7,500$3,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,824.991,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56f3…bf55backed Ducks49c7,143$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Ducks3c6,839$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.613333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Golden Knights48c6,713$3,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,457.0159450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Golden Knights48c6,250$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,25052050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed Ducks49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.97540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Ducks53c5,757$3,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,024.5511952.1%62 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Ducks30c5,594$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.843036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Ducks53c5,579$2,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,956.948549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Golden Knights47c5,567$2,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,938.9340356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2e…b95fbacked Golden Knights59c5,089$2,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+105.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Golden Knights50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50091945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Ducks51c4,845$2,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,476.823228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Golden Knights70c4,265$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.131566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Golden Knights48c4,179$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.876950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Golden Knights47c4,142$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.278345.8%38 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6859…fb90backed Ducks37c4,138$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.664355.8%24 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Ducks40c4,094$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,646.511030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Golden Knights50c4,028$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0147755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Golden Knights50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00015749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Golden Knights49c4,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0504555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Golden Knights51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96013446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Ducks30c3,889$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.6424837.9%94 W · 154 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…1fcabacked Ducks52c3,846$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a65…9142backed Golden Knights50c3,505$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.282166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9c7…5d22backed Ducks13c3,484$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4438445.2%38 W · 46 L+14.8wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+35.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Golden Knights70c3,240$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.523174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Ducks3c3,220$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1318520.5%38 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Golden Knights51c3,200$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56844551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Ducks53c3,155$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.154252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceec…4ad9backed Golden Knights47c3,133$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Golden Knights50c3,001$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.522946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d57…18ddbacked Ducks51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.011540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Golden Knights50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50011153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Golden Knights50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5006841.2%28 W · 40 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x51b8…d25fbacked Ducks19c3,000$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.491030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cc…0b39backed Ducks19c3,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.991050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Ducks33c2,884$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94027044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Golden Knights63c2,857$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.1417750.8%90 W · 87 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed Golden Knights70c2,800$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8381258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Golden Knights51c2,646$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Golden Knights79c2,600$2,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Golden Knights49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,27531848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Ducks26c2,419$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.6117442.5%74 W · 100 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Ducks50c2,400$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20014940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Golden Knights76c2,397$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.4518452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Golden Knights51c2,222$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.7889249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Ducks51c2,173$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.5661950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Golden Knights60c2,158$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.985464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Ducks11c2,100$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2313345.5%15 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+46.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Golden Knights48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.3355446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b1…83a0backed Golden Knights51c2,080$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.39875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+66%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked Ducks29c2,046$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004951%25 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed Ducks1c2,021$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206126.2%16 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Golden Knights47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0601838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Ducks43c2,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.9833837.9%128 W · 210 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Ducks30c1,981$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.5427037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Golden Knights47c1,964$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-64.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ca4…db18backed Golden Knights51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.781656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e3d…85abbacked Golden Knights51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7811151.4%57 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc9b…1e4ebacked Ducks49c1,944$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89f3…452ebacked Golden Knights50c1,944$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Ducks2c1,936$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3623754%128 W · 109 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Golden Knights51c1,863$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.83966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.