NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42e67be187ed12bfec996cb203397623e8afd5c3fb06a861a18f1e418e6d5e74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 1,443$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.89 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Over | 28c | 1,384$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.64 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 74c | 1,093$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.5 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 27c | 1,089$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.12 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…cd84backed Over | 26c | 971.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Over | 27c | 966.67$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 22c | 749.71$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.62 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked Over | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 19c | 442.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 71c | 422.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 367.26$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 73c | 349.94$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.56 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 30c | 315.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…c8f2backed Over | 27c | 311.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 70c | 296.43$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 73c | 288.45$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 78c | 282.99$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 35c | 263.36$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Under | 78c | 250$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 22c | 226.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 29c | 225$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 23c | 204.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 77c | 189.74$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Over | 24c | 170$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…e2dbbacked Under | 62c | 153.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 23c | 152.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 14c | 146.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 26c | 145.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 14c | 141.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 78c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Under | 74c | 124.32$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 74c | 124.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 71c | 107.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 236 | 65.7%155 W · 81 L | +15.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 29c | 106.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 18c | 96.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1833…cc31backed Under | 74c | 80.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 68c | 76.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 20c | 75.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 29c | 70.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 24c | 64.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 66c | 62.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 76c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 25c | 52.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed Over | 22c | 48.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 72c | 46.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +149%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 25c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…2451backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 73c | 34.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 75c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 57c | 28.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 237 | 54%128 W · 109 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…e049backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 69c | 23.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e75…b009backed Under | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 71c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Under | 75c | 20.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dca…b9f2backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 75c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…2241backed Under | 75c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…752abacked Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. DucksGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Golden Knights won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.