NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f47ba5f47a0d93b1c195ce293450f08f351daa5f8c6930f000279cc41bf3d11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Ducks, Golden Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Golden Knights | 71c | 3,000$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…aadebacked Ducks | 29c | 2,891$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.49 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Ducks | 16c | 1,406$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.8 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Golden Knights | 28c | 1,083$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Golden Knights | 70c | 1,022$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.54 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Ducks | 30c | 1,022$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.54 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Ducks | 31c | 955.26$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.88 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Ducks | 29c | 542.33$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.05 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Ducks | 72c | 485.15$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.31 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ducks | 15c | 440.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Golden Knights | 80c | 387.12$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Golden Knights | 67c | 368.79$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Golden Knights | 71c | 363.03$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…fa16backed Ducks | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Golden Knights | 73c | 273.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Golden Knights | 70c | 241$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Ducks | 7c | 240.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ducks | 16c | 202.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1a…bf0abacked Ducks | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcc…13c3backed Ducks | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Ducks | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Golden Knights | 69c | 105.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ducks | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Ducks | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Ducks | 72c | 95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Ducks | 16c | 91.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Ducks | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights | 70c | 69.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ae…d0b3backed Golden Knights | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Ducks | 29c | 50.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Golden Knights | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Ducks | 71c | 27.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Golden Knights | 72c | 22.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. DucksGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.