NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b1f5782e46d74c806b953353fb463b20a76cbdee92616a98a8155c5f9d5af3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ducks | 12c | 3,702$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.22 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Ducks | 71c | 2,760$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.6 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Golden Knights | 30c | 2,470$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.99 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Golden Knights | 30c | 1,786$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.4 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Ducks | 6c | 1,532$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Golden Knights | 80c | 1,257$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.84 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Golden Knights | 29c | 947.91$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.01 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Ducks | 70c | 724.95$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.47 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Ducks | 71c | 705.87$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.13 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Ducks | 71c | 600$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Ducks | 30c | 570$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Golden Knights | 42c | 527.19$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.49 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…c403backed Golden Knights | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Ducks | 34c | 288.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Golden Knights | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Golden Knights | 37c | 257.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.02 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Golden Knights | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f82…c446backed Ducks | 66c | 227.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Ducks | 49c | 226.48$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Ducks | 46c | 217.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Golden Knights | 38c | 213.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.42 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ducks | 42c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Golden Knights | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ducks | 32c | 167.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb035…d989backed Golden Knights | 68c | 166.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Ducks | 46c | 160.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Ducks | 71c | 126$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Golden Knights | 69c | 124.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ducks | 25c | 121.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Ducks | 57c | 113.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Ducks | 33c | 108.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Golden Knights | 55c | 103.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Ducks | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Ducks | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…5f55backed Golden Knights | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Golden Knights | 54c | 89.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Ducks | 71c | 70.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Ducks | 71c | 70.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Ducks | 71c | 70.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Golden Knights | 47c | 60.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Golden Knights | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Ducks | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Golden Knights | 43c | 55.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ducks | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Ducks | 72c | 49.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Ducks | 52c | 49.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Golden Knights | 71c | 44.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Ducks | 24c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 237 | 54%128 W · 109 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Ducks | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Golden Knights | 53c | 37.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7d40backed Golden Knights | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Ducks | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Golden Knights | 55c | 33.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Ducks | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…8eb3backed Golden Knights | 63c | 29.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Ducks | 52c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Ducks | 43c | 25.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Golden Knights | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +48%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Golden Knights | 60c | 23.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Golden Knights | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…4a9abacked Ducks | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. DucksGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.