NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x808173685f238df695e8cdb8d2e9af35530ef63e5f5fe16641b8cec9fb77ec92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe3…c693backed Under | 51c | 4,585$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.49 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 53c | 3,770$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.1 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 1,600$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.08 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb097…0e61backed Over | 52c | 965.12$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.26 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Over | 53c | 944.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.31 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…51b9backed Over | 67c | 884.8$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 48c | 664.19$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.37 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 50c | 634.89$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.45 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 49c | 590$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.9 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 67c | 580.81$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.1 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 568.31$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.11 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8228…b2fbbacked Over | 49c | 453.06$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.06 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Under | 80c | 418$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.61 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Over | 54c | 360$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 29c | 305$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.8 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 192.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 138.74$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Under | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed Under | 51c | 98.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 51c | 98.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Over | 50c | 87.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 31c | 84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 50c | 81.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Under | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 138 | 37.7%52 W · 86 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Under | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 74.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Under | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Under | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1999…b6e5backed Under | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Under | 31c | 61.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…2108backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Under | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Under | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 166 | 40.4%67 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 50c | 32.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 49c | 28.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…c407backed Under | 51c | 25.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe779…059cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7e36backed Under | 78c | 15.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Lakers won
- Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Over won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.