NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d038a76ccfd9fb6d8f134af1e37b176a9a7be5123af9551060f85720d50961b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Thunder, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Lakers | 52c | 7,071$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,370.73 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Lakers | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.99 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Thunder | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Thunder | 48c | 3,859$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.32 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Thunder | 47c | 1,750$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.43 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Thunder | 48c | 968.42$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.84 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder | 48c | 726.06$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.51 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Thunder | 48c | 650.89$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.43 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…6ba5backed Thunder | 54c | 630$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lakers | 50c | 570.96$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.77 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Thunder | 48c | 519.87$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.94 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Thunder | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Lakers | 52c | 421.73$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.55 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…44e0backed Lakers | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Lakers | 53c | 375.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.83 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Thunder | 45c | 337.26$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.59 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…d556backed Lakers | 43c | 330$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…ca23backed Lakers | 55c | 325.97$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.23 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…0caabacked Thunder | 52c | 317.06$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Thunder | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Lakers | 46c | 291.79$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.61 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Thunder | 41c | 270.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…1a45backed Thunder | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Thunder | 53c | 199.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Lakers | 52c | 182.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed Lakers | 53c | 182$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…1d03backed Lakers | 74c | 176.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Lakers | 48c | 167.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…519dbacked Lakers | 68c | 147.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Thunder | 43c | 124$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Thunder | 35c | 116.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Thunder | 68c | 115.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Thunder | 36c | 107.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…1865backed Thunder | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Lakers | 68c | 93.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Thunder | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Lakers | 59c | 84.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Lakers | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Lakers | 56c | 70.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Thunder | 49c | 67.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 576 | 50%288 W · 288 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Lakers | 50c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Thunder | 45c | 59.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Thunder | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Lakers | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Thunder | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…c407backed Thunder | 49c | 50.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Lakers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f1…21fabacked Lakers | 56c | 49.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Thunder | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0948…061cbacked Thunder | 59c | 42.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe779…059cbacked Thunder | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Thunder | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Thunder | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Lakers | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Lakers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…5da6backed Thunder | 51c | 28.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…3b83backed Lakers | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…31b4backed Lakers | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Lakers | 51c | 24.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Thunder | 46c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…d1cebacked Thunder | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fc…db71backed Thunder | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)this page
- Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Over won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.