NBA · resolved market
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf93a99e6643371d01dfe77211068fe735b57c42b5bb2d0f4b626889e7d4986ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 52c | 2,249$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.03 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 48c | 752.54$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.22 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 48c | 583.33$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 48c | 399.98$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 48c | 375$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 49c | 329.95$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.68 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed No | 48c | 270.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…add4backed Yes | 52c | 211.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.94 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed Yes | 52c | 182$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4f…2510backed Yes | 51c | 126.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 51c | 114$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…d402backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked No | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed No | 47c | 74.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 48c | 55.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…4a4cbacked Yes | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…3f39backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 52c | 43.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…d1cebacked No | 47c | 42.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…270ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 49c | 29.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…98d9backed Yes | 51c | 29.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed8…2f11backed No | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 50c | 21.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Lakers won
- Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Over won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.