TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TEAM VISIONof TEAM VISION, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$360,126
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$397,036

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $360,126 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed TEAM VISION59c120,626$71,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,623.251,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7e2…9e36backed Team Falcons41c46,533$19,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,033.742766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+39.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Team Falcons44c21,712$9,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,500.5223435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Falcons40c18,000$7,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,149.9936041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked TEAM VISION61c12,888$7,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,981.8850347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c7d…83edbacked Team Falcons27c12,808$3,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,428.391844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Falcons38c12,037$4,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,565.2488539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x898b…6c00backed Team Falcons44c11,400$4,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,990.444850%24 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f81…48bfbacked Team Falcons19c8,850$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.95650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Falcons40c8,276$3,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,341.741,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team Falcons16c7,812$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.4117452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadea…b96dbacked Team Falcons14c7,650$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095731.4%1 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick11cpaid-91.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Falcons40c5,662$2,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,247.956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed TEAM VISION57c5,000$2,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,151.3769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Team Falcons41c4,870$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.7231936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64c…6a8fbacked Team Falcons20c4,505$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked TEAM VISION76c4,039$3,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.573040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6668…9b4dbacked Team Falcons38c3,918$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.91812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick40cpaid-66.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Falcons26c3,914$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.5271143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Team Falcons10c3,591$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.6520030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc88b…4613backed Team Falcons28c3,512$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Team Falcons44c3,409$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50022853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked TEAM VISION61c2,834$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.535850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed TEAM VISION60c2,704$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.6322663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b8…149bbacked Team Falcons27c2,662$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.6310144.6%45 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked TEAM VISION69c2,654$1,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.231,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed TEAM VISION73c2,600$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69651364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8d9…753abacked TEAM VISION61c2,533$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.842766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf796…de54backed TEAM VISION56c2,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1006651.5%34 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d71…a961backed Team Falcons39c2,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975137.7%1 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-74.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed TEAM VISION80c2,482$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.4410075%75 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked Team Falcons42c2,400$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012159.5%72 W · 49 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Falcons43c2,259$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97072035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d4…d869backed TEAM VISION77c2,257$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.622157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57f1…5ecfbacked Team Falcons41c2,083$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.786642.4%28 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed TEAM VISION60c2,058$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.8412350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed Team Falcons3c2,000$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.829122%20 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ea…36cdbacked TEAM VISION60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8003250%16 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked Team Falcons21c1,991$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.437936.7%29 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Team Falcons38c1,988$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.6216248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked TEAM VISION77c1,988$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.7135361.2%216 W · 137 L-0.7wins0.00per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed Team Falcons42c1,850$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77714136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x024a…35a3backed TEAM VISION60c1,750$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7004065%26 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6efe…8b8ebacked Team Falcons17c1,572$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.292352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+34.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc444…416cbacked TEAM VISION64c1,504$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.3917550.9%89 W · 86 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…b9b4backed Team Falcons43c1,500$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6459852%51 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba7…9c8abacked Team Falcons19c1,500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2858020%16 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Falcons40c1,388$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55561745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Falcons37c1,387$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked TEAM VISION74c1,352$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.5811154.1%60 W · 51 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…cd68backed TEAM VISION61c1,324$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.37966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+42.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bb7…7028backed Team Falcons18c1,279$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2306839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed TEAM VISION75c1,256$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.761,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed TEAM VISION80c1,251$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2511747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed Team Falcons18c1,220$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.66639.4%26 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Team Falcons43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d6…7f51backed TEAM VISION60c1,148$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.685947.5%28 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Falcons42c1,147$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.6890753.7%487 W · 420 L+50.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed TEAM VISION72c1,122$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.0445457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a06…52c2backed Team Falcons24c1,080$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.192437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked Team Falcons19c1,045$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20031953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Team Falcons39c1,038$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4056841.2%28 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Team Falcons45c1,025$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.3528347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked Team Falcons30c1,022$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.8740644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Falcons38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Falcons2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Team Falcons41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked TEAM VISION61c964.84$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.4816641%68 W · 98 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Team Falcons16c937.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011653.4%62 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed TEAM VISION68c853.8$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.971,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf21c…78aebacked Team Falcons26c844$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.541435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed TEAM VISION60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32043538.6%168 W · 267 L-1.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Falcons42c800$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33631547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed TEAM VISION59c800$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32834860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x179b…2b82backed TEAM VISION60c666.67$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.671060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Falcons17c647$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9934044.4%151 W · 189 L+0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891a…f778backed Team Falcons22c646$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.122540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Falcons22c628.39$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.361,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked TEAM VISION72c617.35$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.3520160.2%121 W · 80 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked TEAM VISION60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24065863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74e9…7269backed Team Falcons11c599.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684717%8 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Falcons21c566.13$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.161,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c8…a74cbacked TEAM VISION75c539$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7524542.4%104 W · 141 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Falcons29c532.87$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed Team Falcons44c527.99$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.323943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1522…70febacked Team Falcons28c522$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6519352.3%101 W · 92 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Team Falcons43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21566648.6%324 W · 342 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec2…82babacked Team Falcons15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+55.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x453e…eabcbacked TEAM VISION75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1258657%49 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08a5…db43backed TEAM VISION80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007452.7%39 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd25f…eab3backed TEAM VISION64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18010840.7%44 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3452…1ba0backed TEAM VISION56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22018351.9%95 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02fe…c5a5backed Team Falcons39c491.8$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.88740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dbd…c385backed Team Falcons42c470.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022665%147 W · 79 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x400e…da40backed Team Falcons43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfde4…6453backed TEAM VISION56c446.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.435250%26 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05d1…2bb3backed Team Falcons22c443.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6817248.3%83 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8637…0c86backed TEAM VISION59c425.27$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.273638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Falcons18c403.76$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7837146.4%172 W · 199 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc182…1339backed Team Falcons36c400$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14528846.5%134 W · 154 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.