NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1145ef34fc515ca7921a0630075563365d227c9e730cc63ff500760c855e8df1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Thunder, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs | 50c | 19,190$9,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,640.87 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Thunder | 50c | 14,619$7,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,309.64 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…fec6backed Spurs | 52c | 13,571$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,571.23 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Thunder | 48c | 9,591$4,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,603.48 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Thunder | 50c | 3,500$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Thunder | 50c | 1,556$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.01 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Thunder | 49c | 1,496$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.76 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Spurs | 50c | 1,323$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.05 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Thunder | 50c | 639.37$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.69 | 188 | 53.7%101 W · 87 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…4744backed Thunder | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Thunder | 55c | 545.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder | 49c | 484.07$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.4 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Spurs | 50c | 460$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…ae0ebacked Thunder | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6d…468dbacked Thunder | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Thunder | 50c | 320$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Thunder | 53c | 275.47$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1074…a25dbacked Thunder | 50c | 272.6$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Thunder | 50c | 228.4$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Spurs | 47c | 196$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.88 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Thunder | 53c | 113.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Thunder | 51c | 111.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…3a55backed Thunder | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Spurs | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Thunder | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Spurs | 51c | 79.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Spurs | 35c | 69.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Thunder | 55c | 69.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Thunder | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Thunder | 71c | 56.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…03e5backed Spurs | 50c | 51.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…fc59backed Thunder | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 39.3%53 W · 82 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Spurs | 50c | 39.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Spurs | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Spurs | 47c | 28.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…7d91backed Thunder | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Spurs | 46c | 27.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Thunder | 57c | 24.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Spurs | 45c | 23.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Thunder | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Thunder | 55c | 20.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)this page
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreEven won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.