TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Team Liquid, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$357,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$425,782

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,868 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed Aurora56c114,665$63,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,845.6512159.5%72 W · 49 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Liquid37c61,527$22,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,850.6371143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53fb…7c30backed Team Liquid48c41,000$19,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,6802138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora51c33,550$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,550.351,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Liquid47c19,652$9,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,30039343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Aurora75c15,498$11,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,846.9551049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c7d…83edbacked Team Liquid41c14,400$5,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9041844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d2…629cbacked Team Liquid42c9,000$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7801643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora50c7,965$3,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,965.221,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora50c7,500$3,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,738.3480256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed Aurora52c5,338$2,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,567.3821155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf796…de54backed Aurora67c5,153$3,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.616651.5%34 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid46c4,616$2,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.481,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b8…149bbacked Team Liquid45c4,429$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.7910245.1%46 W · 56 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Team Liquid47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88051140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed Team Liquid13c4,000$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.939122%20 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Liquid48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92095342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team Liquid50c3,707$1,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.1635737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3aa5…cd80backed Team Liquid42c3,700$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5543256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Aurora58c3,500$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47029348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed Team Liquid48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44014136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Team Liquid27c2,925$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.5835850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Liquid22c2,828$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.9896645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Liquid49c2,571$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26093546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Liquid40c2,456$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.632548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b08…053bbacked Team Liquid32c2,436$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.442138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Team Liquid42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed Team Liquid40c2,253$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.347548%36 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Aurora45c2,125$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.7588539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Liquid23c2,004$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.9268649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Team Liquid40c1,973$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.221146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Aurora64c1,890$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.7447650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Team Liquid55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Aurora50c1,802$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.8961456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Liquid42c1,726$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c5b…26e2backed Team Liquid42c1,701$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.295046%23 W · 27 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Aurora74c1,656$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.0735960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid23c1,653$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.6689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Liquid40c1,651$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.711,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Liquid43c1,635$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.9556542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Liquid42c1,600$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67231547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…d8d6backed Team Liquid2c1,498$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.754422.7%10 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Team Liquid48c1,354$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.0917040.6%69 W · 101 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked Team Liquid41c1,350$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.59643.8%42 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c58…7ee8backed Team Liquid12c1,267$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora73c1,232$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.4453764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked Team Liquid43c1,174$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.164542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Liquid24c1,125$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.451,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6818…8f14backed Team Liquid27c1,120$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005932.2%19 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Team Liquid42c1,110$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4666841.2%28 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Team Liquid28c1,100$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30432445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5997…0beebacked Team Liquid42c1,078$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.763839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd99b…50bebacked Team Liquid42c1,072$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.247142.3%30 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed Aurora45c1,062$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.120233.2%67 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Liquid28c1,037$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.211,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Liquid54c1,028$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55561745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Aurora60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40013258.3%77 W · 55 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3901…8f65backed Aurora49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5103743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Aurora52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Team Liquid42c923.81$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3887440.5%30 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Aurora74c912.31$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.234442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid48c910.98$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.781,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Liquid44c902.19$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.9669644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Team Liquid42c900$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37865441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb8f…4a0bbacked Team Liquid42c900$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3785444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Liquid48c900$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4361,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x489b…a6ecbacked Team Liquid42c872$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3621560%9 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Aurora59c852.62$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.5731055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c22…fc37backed Aurora49c816.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.321968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+37.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Aurora75c800$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20012060.8%73 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Team Liquid52c800$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.7223561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd25f…eab3backed Team Liquid1c800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510840.7%44 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Team Liquid4c749$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.969744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Aurora55c688.89$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31027153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Liquid50c593.24$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.6958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Team Liquid42c533.33$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22447748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Team Liquid3c531.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4742639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc5d6…4c19backed Team Liquid3c503.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139235.9%33 W · 59 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Team Liquid2c499.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.547548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e96…e128backed Team Liquid4c478.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1410937.6%41 W · 68 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Team Liquid23c420$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.414343.4%62 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked Aurora74c400$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1041533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fad…6e3dbacked Team Liquid36c386.13$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1406841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Liquid41c356.05$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.531,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x631a…a80fbacked Aurora53c350$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.520542.9%88 W · 117 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3231…6e75backed Aurora49c338.5$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.247657.9%44 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b79…a640backed Aurora59c329.7$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa453…bd45backed Aurora74c320.96$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.541540%6 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a81…0e8fbacked Aurora78c304$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.884148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Aurora59c288.89$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4458356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3f…67f1backed Team Liquid4c283.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora64c279.5$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9572154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac6…db45backed Aurora54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.784146.3%19 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa817…1c3bbacked Aurora72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.785549.1%27 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Liquid50c277.43$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7137745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf23c…9f81backed Aurora53c274.55$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.042676.9%20 W · 6 L+5.8wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+41.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1e7a…f252backed Team Liquid41c268.29$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104250%21 W · 21 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Aurora60c258.08$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2332549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid28c255.44$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.251,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Team Liquid29c254.35$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.513132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.