Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x801d83d33f964ae077a4c961b0f98223a6b1e0610c4db121c88945f07431ff0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 48c | 1,015$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.38 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Over | 51c | 418.31$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Under | 49c | 206$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 52c | 160.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…521ebacked Under | 49c | 91.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…15afbacked Under | 49c | 77.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 47c | 59.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…783ebacked Over | 58c | 55.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Under | 41c | 50.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group StageTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)Team Liquid won
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.