TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
B8of MIBR, B8
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,350,529
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,404,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,350,529 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,352 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73e3…1be9backed MIBR43c130,016$56,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,207.0520153.7%108 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked B856c130,000$72,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,199.9514050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked MIBR42c97,169$41,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,036.242440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5291…d4b6backed B857c75,059$42,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,473.561963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed B854c60,000$32,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,333.8750054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MIBR32c52,804$17,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,145.521,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked B858c50,000$29,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,999.9675758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked MIBR45c44,236$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00016344.2%72 W · 91 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed MIBR44c40,000$17,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,60033043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked MIBR44c35,000$15,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,40075452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed MIBR43c26,826$11,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,535.2941649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked MIBR17c26,034$4,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,301.5422129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed B855c25,605$14,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,522.317951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed MIBR45c23,513$10,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,498.2523839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed MIBR44c20,856$9,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,109.2410361.2%63 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked B856c19,643$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,642.8622354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed B855c17,763$9,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,956.1812449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed B857c17,500$9,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,524.9533343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked B860c16,745$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,744.6525751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked MIBR50c16,628$8,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,291.3741040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed MIBR44c16,485$7,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,290.3415947.8%76 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed MIBR44c16,415$7,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,222.6816449.4%81 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f8…4de0backed MIBR44c16,115$7,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,090.61650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed B857c15,406$8,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,659.736031.7%19 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked MIBR45c15,199$6,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,880.223145.9%106 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed B863c15,190$9,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,667.465,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed MIBR44c15,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6003351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed B856c13,627$7,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,995.882240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9368…80a3backed MIBR46c13,155$6,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,010.534744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed B852c13,000$6,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,259.9930340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…7d41backed MIBR45c12,816$5,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,774.0910352.4%54 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked B859c12,700$7,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,161.4414947.7%71 W · 78 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f7c…7a19backed B858c12,517$7,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,318.599452.1%49 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed MIBR46c12,512$5,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,763.9737157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed MIBR44c12,472$5,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,489.0813244.7%59 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked MIBR41c12,070$4,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,943.265,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed B844c11,387$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,386.7733359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed MIBR42c11,042$4,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,604.282,49141.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L-114.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked MIBR44c10,970$4,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,82747047.4%223 W · 247 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdafe…c5b5backed B848c10,200$4,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,325.952339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked MIBR54c10,043$5,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,465.992673.1%19 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed B855c9,991$5,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,496.011662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed B830c9,470$2,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,629.1722843.9%100 W · 128 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0f…4790backed B856c9,300$5,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,066.561533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed B854c9,260$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.5919455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked MIBR44c9,112$4,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,009.2183652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebaf…b654backed B856c9,000$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,960560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked MIBR44c9,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,959.9436152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed B844c8,869$3,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,937.6710359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked MIBR31c8,700$2,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,657.9769624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked MIBR16c8,375$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.972,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed MIBR55c8,000$4,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,439.927450%37 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked B862c7,211$4,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,725.9244657.2%255 W · 191 L-20.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x381b…4d74backed B856c7,200$4,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,168560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed B841c7,145$2,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,209.9351252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed MIBR44c6,810$2,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.46454.7%35 W · 29 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed MIBR45c6,720$3,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,025.0115052.7%79 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed MIBR45c6,633$2,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9856737.3%25 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2037…473dbacked B858c6,619$3,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7032…41f3backed B857c6,344$3,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,727.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked MIBR47c6,253$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.2719457.2%111 W · 83 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed MIBR45c6,200$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,789.9884658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked B855c5,668$3,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.4616248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2831…5473backed MIBR72c5,600$4,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,017.9810969.7%76 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc84…04b2backed B870c5,590$3,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6775444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed MIBR73c5,116$3,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,755.221854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed B847c5,020$2,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,650.524262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked B856c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20027658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed MIBR50c5,000$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,478.8675350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed B856c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20014950.3%75 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed MIBR45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25046749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked B858c5,000$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,074.9917853.9%96 W · 82 L+0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked MIBR44c4,700$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.993053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e7…68d2backed B857c4,628$2,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,990.07683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+76.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked B856c4,623$2,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.237941.8%33 W · 46 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8efe…6704backed B852c4,500$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.420562.4%128 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed B870c4,444$3,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.4210056%56 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed MIBR45c4,437$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed MIBR29c4,432$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.9320448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4421…1dd3backed MIBR43c4,200$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.99560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x320c…2d7abacked MIBR43c4,000$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.791163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed MIBR44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.9626952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed B855c3,973$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,807.5821945.7%100 W · 119 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed B850c3,866$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,915.7435236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked MIBR44c3,788$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.555543.6%24 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed MIBR43c3,721$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed MIBR51c3,692$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.9922253.2%118 W · 104 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed B857c3,668$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.0325248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c05…9e9fbacked MIBR13c3,640$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4552920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MIBR44c3,604$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,585.552,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed B854c3,578$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.7817948%86 W · 93 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked B864c3,540$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2622,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed B857c3,509$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.771,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked MIBR44c3,500$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54028538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf915…8720backed B856c3,500$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked B858c3,500$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4702839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed MIBR45c3,500$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.9766551.9%345 W · 320 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked B853c3,500$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.977454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed B857c3,479$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.7945639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked MIBR37c3,439$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.381,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.