TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof BoomBoys, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$346,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$409,810

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $346,816 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora52c84,986$44,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,585.771,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BoomBoys34c49,200$16,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,649.8571143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Aurora51c13,534$6,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,611.1423435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed BoomBoys48c13,000$6,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2407548%36 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed BoomBoys47c10,331$4,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,855.5369644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Aurora52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.9924246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Aurora51c8,620$4,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,226.5612159.5%72 W · 49 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked BoomBoys48c8,333$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00053451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7414…72a3backed BoomBoys45c8,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.993633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.8wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-24.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked BoomBoys46c7,500$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.9919847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed BoomBoys49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,94053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c5b…26e2backed BoomBoys11c5,551$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.865046%23 W · 27 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xadea…b96dbacked BoomBoys13c5,500$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700731.4%1 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick11cpaid-91.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked Aurora59c5,084$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.6212858.6%75 W · 53 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Aurora60c4,081$2,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.7691553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedfc…b7b1backed Aurora61c4,068$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,567.838348.2%40 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed BoomBoys50c4,063$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.7314136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed BoomBoys48c4,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BoomBoys44c3,823$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.3889749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd61a…708bbacked BoomBoys16c3,800$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63bc…92c5backed Aurora70c3,600$2,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08811045.5%50 W · 60 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9100…7adebacked Aurora70c3,548$2,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.472552%13 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked BoomBoys40c3,499$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.7835850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed BoomBoys49c3,447$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.4734051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc835…3911backed Aurora75c3,210$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.11241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked BoomBoys51c3,150$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.59643.8%42 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Aurora67c3,134$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.3312060.8%73 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked BoomBoys47c3,085$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.7636041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed BoomBoys45c3,072$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.8168649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed BoomBoys38c3,042$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.9353764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed Aurora79c2,868$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.357770.1%54 W · 23 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+8.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc16e…2b2fbacked BoomBoys48c2,763$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.241020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-73.3%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed BoomBoys1c2,461$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.533323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed BoomBoys48c2,400$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15235737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed BoomBoys48c2,286$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.2888539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed BoomBoys2c2,283$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8140014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe522…cc1abacked BoomBoys49c2,040$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.42560%15 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed BoomBoys6c2,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.739122%20 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed BoomBoys48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96022663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f1…5ecfbacked BoomBoys47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9406642.4%28 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca93…3c97backed BoomBoys49c1,992$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9743455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a4…6c3ebacked BoomBoys51c1,967$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BoomBoys39c1,955$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.531,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked BoomBoys41c1,912$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed Aurora55c1,827$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.9310458.7%61 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed BoomBoys46c1,800$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.1558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x818b…c5ebbacked Aurora62c1,773$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.389658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed BoomBoys23c1,738$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.2120030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BoomBoys35c1,685$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.531,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed BoomBoys31c1,615$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.6418437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed Aurora62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.918660.8%113 W · 73 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BoomBoys42c1,500$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.41,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed BoomBoys51c1,500$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76518830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba7…9c8abacked BoomBoys17c1,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2558020%16 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed BoomBoys48c1,457$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.3341056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BoomBoys43c1,444$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.461,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked BoomBoys22c1,404$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.3831052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Aurora72c1,394$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.3222853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora77c1,306$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.4879859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c72…7e7ebacked BoomBoys51c1,302$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.644632.6%15 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Aurora62c1,290$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.3250850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed BoomBoys47c1,277$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9950053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd99b…50bebacked BoomBoys49c1,233$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.177142.3%30 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked BoomBoys26c1,225$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.8331953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked BoomBoys49c1,224$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60011656%65 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked BoomBoys34c1,203$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.850749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed BoomBoys17c1,200$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20434442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bc2…077bbacked Aurora53c1,160$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.418450%42 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed BoomBoys48c1,121$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.053452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed BoomBoys2c1,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x546b…1582backed Aurora69c1,098$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.383256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Aurora51c1,064$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.5331936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d0…f30fbacked BoomBoys50c1,050$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5253447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed BoomBoys3c1,033$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3072035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed BoomBoys49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c5…5bbabacked BoomBoys35c1,009$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.0321941.1%90 W · 129 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed BoomBoys30c1,007$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.6537745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked BoomBoys48c1,000$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.8935960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8756…3c83backed Aurora52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4803545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf346…1b8ebacked BoomBoys33c903.58$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022438.8%87 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Aurora50c900$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45013258.3%77 W · 55 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed BoomBoys49c900$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4371,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed Aurora68c887.98$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.1512966.7%86 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed BoomBoys46c859.99$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.665441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3020…df2bbacked Aurora59c857.61$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.212962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed BoomBoys47c857.45$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4037440.5%30 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Aurora49c812.5$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.1425248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bcc…b4fabacked Aurora58c810.26$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.2616959.2%100 W · 69 L+14.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked BoomBoys48c805.89$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.8331055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked Aurora79c795.06$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.1621558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked BoomBoys26c771.87$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4333845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7de0…7429backed Aurora67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.273764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked BoomBoys49c702.4$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.0722543.6%98 W · 127 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked BoomBoys46c699.99$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32256542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BoomBoys48c644.42$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.242,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd47c…39b5backed Aurora53c614.23$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.233560%21 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Aurora61c603.37$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2210056%56 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Aurora52c600$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28849455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BoomBoys26c593.46$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.071,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed BoomBoys7c551.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7242639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.