Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: BoomBoys (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66afc50291f732014ebe0b584d7a88c1768c51959a79b9959d0e26c6110ce28b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof BoomBoys, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Aurora | 63c | 2,605$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.32 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed BoomBoys | 27c | 1,394$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.19 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Aurora | 80c | 1,307$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.12 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed BoomBoys | 28c | 1,250$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Aurora | 72c | 1,188$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.88 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked BoomBoys | 38c | 1,128$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.22 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f4…b38ebacked BoomBoys | 32c | 1,101$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Aurora | 68c | 861.1$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.55 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed BoomBoys | 26c | 383.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Aurora | 74c | 345.72$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…d2d6backed BoomBoys | 31c | 156.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Aurora | 71c | 109.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Aurora | 74c | 108.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed BoomBoys | 27c | 66.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed BoomBoys | 28c | 62.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Aurora | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…92debacked Aurora | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed BoomBoys | 28c | 42.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…4774backed Aurora | 72c | 42.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked BoomBoys | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked BoomBoys | 26c | 40.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed BoomBoys | 27c | 39.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Aurora | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Aurora | 67c | 22.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: BoomBoys (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group StageAurora won
- Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- First Blood in Game 1?BoomBoys won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BoomBoys (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.