IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67475aba7b15b655c8671adb1acad5452e3ff4b48ccd5c7dc90d5b1b740821ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $271,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf1c…2ebbbacked Yes | 27c | 14,365$3,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,873.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 10c | 12,844$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.61 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 8c | 12,600$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 79c | 12,489$9,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,666.22 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b9…d898backed Yes | 5c | 11,100$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes | 4c | 10,543$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…9c4ebacked Yes | 6c | 8,761$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 8,603$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.98 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 4,534$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.04 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,476$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…31d6backed Yes | 7c | 3,451$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x333a…bd76backed Yes | 7c | 2,412$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…1b0ebacked Yes | 38c | 2,381$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,350$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…7239backed Yes | 29c | 2,337$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 27c | 2,097$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c1…0e00backed Yes | 23c | 2,081$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 2c | 1,961$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f1…65c4backed Yes | 21c | 1,954$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 26c | 1,945$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.55 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked No | 76c | 1,943$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,906$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…eebabacked Yes | 3c | 1,868$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…fa89backed Yes | 9c | 1,835$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 1,746$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.07 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,736$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 6c | 1,696$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 21c | 1,630$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 1,600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…6c4ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,586$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 73c | 1,550$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 25c | 1,484$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.78 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…1fdabacked Yes | 34c | 1,480$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,403$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,383$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.97 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…a59dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,220$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 79c | 1,178$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 21c | 1,123$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed Yes | 1c | 1,117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,110$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.42 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…85aabacked Yes | 26c | 1,102$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked No | 75c | 1,025$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.02 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…e623backed Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 79c | 877.89$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 867.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…852cbacked No | 72c | 863.71$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 853.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…6f8dbacked Yes | 34c | 785.65$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 30c | 721.1$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 77c | 693.48$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.33 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…e108backed Yes | 6c | 689.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0589…b26bbacked Yes | 6c | 666$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…240cbacked Yes | 6c | 666$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c1…e7f3backed Yes | 12c | 653.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 12c | 638.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…7677backed Yes | 24c | 606.54$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…9404backed No | 72c | 601.33$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 588.71$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 77c | 572.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…7dcbbacked Yes | 14c | 572.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes | 29c | 559.59$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…5e9bbacked Yes | 25c | 550$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 79c | 545.66$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.73 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…2ea2backed Yes | 22c | 519.54$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed No | 76c | 500$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1c…192fbacked Yes | 16c | 494.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd931…6115backed Yes | 19c | 446.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…c9fbbacked Yes | 6c | 443.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 436$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 23c | 399.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…0643backed Yes | 27c | 374.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d4a1backed Yes | 27c | 372.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783d…9a35backed Yes | 25c | 371.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 370.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…0cf6backed Yes | 5c | 354.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 73c | 348.84$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…2ec2backed Yes | 27c | 347.66$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d1…9ea6backed Yes | 32c | 310.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…eeb0backed Yes | 26c | 305.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9950…6d78backed Yes | 8c | 303.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…5ec6backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 75c | 300$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 25c | 299.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…2221backed No | 78c | 289.38$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…dcc6backed Yes | 24c | 281.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed Yes | 18c | 273.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…0359backed No | 76c | 269.37$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc1…0a86backed Yes | 30c | 260$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4492…cad8backed Yes | 26c | 247.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 26c | 232.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…b4aabacked Yes | 17c | 232$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9be…0756backed No | 77c | 230$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…ee6abacked Yes | 18c | 226.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebeb…4966backed Yes | 29c | 207.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 24c | 205.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?this page
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.