Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83c1c1cf3820df1157adb0080be6ba6bdeb2512a7d7ddf04f9d394a929706291

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,694
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,418

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,694 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa3e9…63d0backed No	68c	300$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.38	55	61.8%34 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	14c	211.78$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.75	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	32c	173$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.36	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes	11c	141$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes	41c	137$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.82	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed No	65c	125.02$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.76	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	30c	125$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a96…69debacked Yes	20c	125$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+3.8wins	+0.12per pick	34cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	32c	109.98$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.34	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes	33c	107.06$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.72	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	71c	101.22$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.65	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No	26c	81.99$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.29	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes	20c	55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked No	69c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+68.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked No	67c	40$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	58c	39.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.39	232	45.7%106 W · 126 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d8…be73backed Yes	31c	35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	99	46.5%46 W · 53 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	29c	34.92$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	72c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	71c	24.88$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.22	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed No	72c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	141	30.5%43 W · 98 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x330f…8adabacked No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a51…05adbacked No	71c	18.24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.29	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No	71c	16.07$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.72	148	39.2%58 W · 90 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No	73c	15.08$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.07	318	51.9%165 W · 153 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f2…d1f0backed No	75c	15.08$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.77	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked No	80c	13.53$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.71	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event