World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d5a4729071ff8d9d878210312f132d3691ce6fbbd2f01aebd4546b23e7b624c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes | 58c | 5,494$3,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,315.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 60c | 5,369$3,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.36 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 24c | 5,217$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,944.53 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06aa…fbf3backed Yes | 16c | 3,736$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +237.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 2c | 2,850$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc95…639ebacked No | 72c | 2,500$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 29c | 2,404$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.71 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…0c7ebacked No | 4c | 2,343$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…a4f8backed Yes | 16c | 2,159$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +293.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 4c | 1,893$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…8ddbbacked No | 3c | 1,719$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 1,624$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.4 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4734…0979backed Yes | 14c | 1,514$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 16c | 1,485$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.85 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…11d7backed Yes | 16c | 1,387$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +230.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 16c | 1,335$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 62c | 1,318$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.23 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 1,300$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.12 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…0dd7backed Yes | 26c | 1,155$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,057$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 6c | 1,029$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 5c | 1,009$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 20c | 840$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…fb23backed No | 8c | 784.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 696.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9408…9cb2backed No | 5c | 694.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 40c | 682.38$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.81 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 24c | 650$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 40c | 595.1$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.71 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 559.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…c01cbacked Yes | 39c | 551.62$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.26 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 27c | 545.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 497.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.9 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae74backed No | 75c | 451.48$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…242cbacked Yes | 32c | 438.38$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes | 69c | 434.59$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.59 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 10c | 340.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 41c | 334.13$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.68 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 19c | 325$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.05 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…611cbacked Yes | 32c | 322.63$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…9a33backed No | 5c | 318.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d5…37aebacked No | 4c | 279.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 22c | 279.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed Yes | 16c | 277.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +154%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 74c | 262.09$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.93 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 25c | 258.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.67 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed Yes | 25c | 257$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 256.6$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.72 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…e56cbacked No | 17c | 248.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 5c | 247.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1e…f060backed Yes | 13c | 235.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 78c | 226.77$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…9be5backed No | 7c | 220.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…d2ebbacked Yes | 30c | 220$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…f8a1backed Yes | 49c | 205.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 205.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.34 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…bac3backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db8…562ebacked No | 6c | 199.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2923…68eebacked Yes | 18c | 198.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +459.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 57c | 193.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 79c | 189.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…ec81backed No | 11c | 182.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…63e0backed No | 14c | 160.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6b…d601backed Yes | 48c | 159.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…384bbacked Yes | 59c | 150.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…994bbacked No | 56c | 149.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 143.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.94 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4399…03ecbacked Yes | 64c | 143.47$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 16c | 139.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4068backed Yes | 24c | 130$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 55c | 121.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 119.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8f22backed Yes | 42c | 117.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 28c | 116.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…d641backed Yes | 13c | 111.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed No | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 12c | 103.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…d609backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…2094backed Yes | 19c | 96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…dbffbacked No | 16c | 95.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 28c | 90.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed Yes | 15c | 89.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…bff0backed No | 38c | 88.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa288…f80fbacked Yes | 14c | 82.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 74c | 79.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 70c | 78.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 14c | 74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 36c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…7f45backed No | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 40c | 60.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f7…7bd9backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 69c | 42.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 38.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…518bbacked Yes | 65c | 38.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 39c | 30.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 69c | 26.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 74c | 25.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the May meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.