Middle East · resolved market
Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe259598e5a6c822d9d5cd125a853fecf6ebed30425621c4dd6fe4151b32d9ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba2c…bf17backed Yes | 63c | 20,379$12,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,493.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 19c | 5,209$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 3,726$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.7 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 35c | 3,595$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 53c | 1,601$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.94 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 33c | 1,493$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.53 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 43c | 1,394$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.42 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 5c | 1,200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 7c | 1,010$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.3 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 8c | 792.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 50c | 720$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked No | 35c | 643$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb1…acc2backed No | 35c | 536$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 523.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.55 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 435.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.56 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 48c | 433$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 65c | 423.22$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.05 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…4e83backed No | 40c | 405$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 10c | 343.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.52 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad4…e43fbacked Yes | 9c | 337.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +997.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…978ebacked No | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked No | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ff…c05fbacked No | 33c | 265.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…daeabacked Yes | 8c | 233.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.03 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.32per pick | 33cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…787cbacked No | 33c | 225$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed No | 33c | 212.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…1446backed No | 35c | 212.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…4657backed No | 33c | 141.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 17c | 133.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…f868backed No | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 36c | 89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 85.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…81bebacked No | 33c | 73.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed No | 33c | 68.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c4…6f6dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…5f8abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…7e69backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a1…cf62backed No | 33c | 47.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7be8…0f50backed No | 33c | 37.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked No | 33c | 33.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…b1debacked No | 33c | 33.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 52c | 21.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…3c1abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.