Movies · resolved market
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4520e16130f3c360690085535b2fccb4f05a7eb673a6d0af20729af3dfb3a1c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 29c | 37,351$10,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,661.48 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 76c | 6,755$5,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.55 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 4,404$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 68c | 3,110$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.06 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,957$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.92 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 74c | 2,240$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.1 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…37b7backed Yes | 9c | 1,975$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 18c | 1,600$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.84 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 79c | 1,553$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.92 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,377$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.37 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,264$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed No | 80c | 1,200$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 29c | 1,157$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.88 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…0216backed Yes | 1c | 1,118$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 1,115$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 76c | 1,079$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.32 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 14c | 1,055$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.95 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 19c | 999.97$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.39 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 19c | 925.31$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.59 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 21c | 907.52$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 72c | 895.16$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 848.74$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.5 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaf…5f30backed Yes | 1c | 844.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 21c | 823.95$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed No | 78c | 819.25$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 34c | 786.13$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.28 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 667$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.52 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 15c | 630$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 36c | 566.04$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 533.59$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.53 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 79c | 519.47$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed No | 74c | 512.09$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.61 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 20c | 498.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 29c | 495.37$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.56 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 26c | 485.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 29c | 477.38$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 13c | 458.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 33c | 450$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.28 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 439.21$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…e4d5backed Yes | 25c | 402.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 401.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 23c | 373.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 363.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 38c | 336.11$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 18c | 296.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…f388backed Yes | 53c | 286.86$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 16c | 262.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 78c | 261$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 79c | 253.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 225$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 6c | 219$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 33c | 211.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…a6a2backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 18c | 194$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 193.43$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…e8f3backed Yes | 26c | 191.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 21c | 187.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 72c | 170.83$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 77c | 161.07$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 14c | 151.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 75c | 149.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668e…4fcbbacked No | 68c | 147.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…3da3backed Yes | 47c | 139.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 130.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 27c | 125.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1a…4c96backed No | 79c | 118.9$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 14c | 114.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 58c | 103.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 17c | 101.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +50%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…9b5abacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7976…f3dcbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 35c | 99.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 98.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 97.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 88.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…8883backed No | 68c | 86.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed Yes | 23c | 85.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Yes | 19c | 79.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed No | 47c | 72.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes | 35c | 72.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…9675backed Yes | 37c | 69.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 66c | 64.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 62.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 34c | 62.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…f05cbacked No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 17c | 60.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 80c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 64c | 57.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?this page
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?No won
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?No won
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?Yes won
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.