Movies · resolved market
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f2e6b0b4c7129bf07e0819b795899e96ace0d449de1b032ecb26e8aa363b740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 70c | 8,153$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,452.82 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 73c | 6,004$4,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.16 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 31c | 4,351$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.11 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 32c | 3,298$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.15 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 77c | 3,196$2,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.78 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 29c | 2,864$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.27 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 2,747$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.05 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 2,510$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.11 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 72c | 1,670$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 1,375$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.49 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 1,241$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.41 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 27c | 1,025$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.55 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 54c | 1,002$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.54 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 857$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.5 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 59c | 779.13$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.72 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 40c | 772.58$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.49 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 44c | 723.19$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.72 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 50c | 692.99$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.67 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 23c | 634$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 59c | 630$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 41c | 620$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.8 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 27c | 600$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 45c | 573.08$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.54 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 61c | 571.73$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 520$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…75f7backed No | 20c | 510.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 74c | 507.66$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.66 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 44c | 500.7$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.7 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 492$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.81 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 19c | 463.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 426.43$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 425.73$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.05 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 32c | 400$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 397.11$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.79 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 21c | 395$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…f388backed Yes | 40c | 380$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 21c | 379.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 45c | 362.76$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.01 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 66c | 347.37$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…0216backed Yes | 50c | 342.88$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 318$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.32 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 36c | 304.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.59 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 51c | 256.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.59 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.58 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 42c | 243.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.59 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed Yes | 57c | 211.95$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 205$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc5…52abbacked Yes | 54c | 202$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 41c | 201$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…a6a2backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 53c | 194.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 45c | 192.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…3efdbacked Yes | 46c | 192.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 39c | 183.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 42c | 169.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed Yes | 71c | 159.02$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 68c | 156.47$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 156.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 154.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 37c | 151.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 66c | 150.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 23c | 150.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 42c | 147.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 68c | 146.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 61c | 142.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 140.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…8969backed Yes | 43c | 139.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 31c | 124.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 30c | 120.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 39c | 116.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 39c | 112.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 39c | 101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…8b26backed Yes | 47c | 98.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…ddb3backed Yes | 75c | 93.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 43c | 89.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 88.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…8883backed Yes | 46c | 87.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 42c | 84.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 49c | 83.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked Yes | 80c | 81.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…2b23backed No | 15c | 79.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…d719backed Yes | 45c | 72.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 70.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 70.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…5dd2backed Yes | 63c | 63.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed Yes | 35c | 57.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…dcc6backed Yes | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…adf5backed No | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?this page
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?No won
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?No won
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?No won
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.