TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,414 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No21c5,041$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.593548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes44c2,719$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.3510740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No35c2,209$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.216152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes65c1,942$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.76750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No41c999.97$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.0518126%47 W · 134 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes12c874.74$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.535552.7%29 W · 26 L+8.1wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No80c778.75$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62315150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes11c683.51$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.882536%9 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No39c599$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.7613243.9%58 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No37c582.27$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.669035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes40c562.15$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.9922833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes75c550.94$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.35547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No31c546.77$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.52250%11 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c509.62$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5618337.7%69 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes54c500$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2287437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No35c499$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.58332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes66c424.4$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.313625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No45c409.97$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.28740.2%35 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes50c407.24$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.157537.3%28 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed Yes76c400$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes69c331.53$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.525030.8%77 W · 173 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No16c299.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.94143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Yes67c280$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No36c269.92$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.359846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked Yes17c239$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.892030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9800…9a33backed No30c228.56$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.57666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed Yes44c224.88$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.951957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes66c218.88$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5433238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes70c208.56$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.576826.5%18 W · 50 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x034f…f8b4backed No37c203.65$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.062516%4 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-73.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes30c199.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes32c199.56$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.1115531%48 W · 107 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes64c193.91$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.813756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No32c188$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.162941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No27c141.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2513647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes60c140$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5610133.7%34 W · 67 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed Yes65c125$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.754833.3%16 W · 32 L-7.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-41.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0894…d819backed Yes16c113$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.15580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+132.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed Yes57c110.53$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.531656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes69c100.18$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.051361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355637.5%21 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdda5…c82abacked Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1491…fd70backed No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes67c99.87$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.632661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes19c93.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.924134.1%14 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-43.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No41c92.31$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8110345.6%47 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes14c92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.124546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc972…dcd9backed Yes23c87.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.021250%6 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+58.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Yes55c82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.92152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x031a…fdf7backed Yes59c81.35$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5c4…8346backed Yes59c77.15$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc2a…6750backed Yes59c77.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x571c…b9f9backed No36c72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.962161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed No67c69$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.493732.4%12 W · 25 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No43c60.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0333521.8%73 W · 262 L-24.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa36…7d42backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f7…f0c4backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55850%29 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No50c49.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.054951%25 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No34c47.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.214346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes44c43.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4366914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No80c43.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.718541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f7…aa1bbacked Yes57c43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Yes70c42.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.245035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x018a…9522backed No40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1eb5…c246backed No33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97324.7%18 W · 55 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes79c39.63$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.144136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No61c37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.576636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes44c34.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.121457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe8…6d0abacked No49c34.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3911048.2%53 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.64643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a7f…6413backed Yes68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.63151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f71…719abacked Yes55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.417240.7%70 W · 102 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb1…0f6ebacked Yes78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No80c28.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.542050%10 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes59c28.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.391315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-73.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No61c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.257425.7%19 W · 55 L-10.9wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-39.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xffee…ea6bbacked No62c20.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.540%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes59c20.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.218132.1%26 W · 55 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.44146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.43560%21 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.44146.3%19 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2f2…d1f0backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.24555.6%25 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc31…3fe8backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.