Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77508b9cb5962ff587890f79e3e39a1789384405b6ff530afbccb9d70743352a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,395,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,587,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,395,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 506 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 0c | 385,346$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 26c | 119,569$31,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,208.78 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca5d…6ed9backed No | 0c | 112,748$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…6a27backed No | 0c | 100,844$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.69 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…39b2backed No | 0c | 63,000$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…1b24backed No | 0c | 51,902$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 1c | 50,796$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.49 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…34c7backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 49,917$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,309.78 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 2c | 46,479$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.56 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…6c9ebacked No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked No | 0c | 39,900$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e53…1312backed No | 0c | 34,735$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…45bfbacked No | 0c | 33,203$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 11c | 32,645$3,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,728.55 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…5ca6backed No | 0c | 31,692$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…db01backed No | 0c | 30,493$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…bc30backed No | 18c | 27,242$4,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,910.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…14ecbacked No | 0c | 26,708$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed No | 1c | 26,213$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.73 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…59a8backed No | 0c | 24,260$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed No | 0c | 24,100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cab…4882backed No | 0c | 23,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed No | 1c | 20,478$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.76 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…96bdbacked No | 0c | 18,880$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767d…549bbacked No | 0c | 18,393$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…7f9ebacked No | 0c | 18,198$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked No | 1c | 17,803$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed Yes | 29c | 16,280$4,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,570.28 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked No | 26c | 15,859$4,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,116.99 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x922b…a932backed No | 0c | 14,823$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 19cpaid | +279.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9312…a285backed No | 0c | 12,333$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 78c | 12,225$9,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,632.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed No | 0c | 11,497$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca3…ef27backed No | 0c | 11,330$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4805…0664backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed No | 0c | 11,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 6c | 10,582$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,901.86 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed No | 0c | 10,530$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 8c | 10,307$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,504.25 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 1c | 10,036$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7212…d887backed No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…2a2dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…8f06backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…e4edbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…920abacked No | 0c | 9,420$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6d…80babacked No | 0c | 9,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 34c | 8,761$2,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,787.01 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 27c | 8,599$2,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,284.65 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 24c | 8,391$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,364.01 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 26c | 8,107$2,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,036.27 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 11c | 7,760$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.84 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 0c | 7,231$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 51c | 7,174$3,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,526.81 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked No | 1c | 7,163$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65b…e257backed Yes | 74c | 6,749$4,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.43 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 6c | 6,587$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,207.64 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 74c | 6,535$4,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.73 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 5c | 6,281$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.4 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…8004backed Yes | 21c | 6,222$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,897.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 56c | 6,000$3,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,649.02 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 16c | 5,989$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,039.2 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f89…d6febacked Yes | 34c | 5,923$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,892.79 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 13c | 5,714$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,991.27 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab81…6e6dbacked Yes | 56c | 5,502$3,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,424.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed No | 37c | 5,473$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.35 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78cb…b7cfbacked No | 8c | 5,438$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…4b24backed No | 0c | 5,400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 74c | 5,253$3,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.01 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…e049backed No | 27c | 5,181$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.59 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,950 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 23c | 4,697$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,607.18 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 20c | 4,395$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.49 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 4,326$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 46c | 4,023$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.09 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…3626backed No | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 20c | 3,943$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,140.17 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 1c | 3,913$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…e0cdbacked No | 0c | 3,833$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed No | 0c | 3,793$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…8b28backed No | 2c | 3,753$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 3,717$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,752.77 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 44c | 3,667$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.61 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9f…3c89backed No | 0c | 3,590$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 63c | 3,559$2,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.07 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 66c | 3,495$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 52c | 3,487$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.85 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 19c | 3,480$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.36 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6de…887bbacked No | 0c | 3,427$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…bca3backed No | 1c | 3,393$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 24c | 3,337$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,537.47 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 38c | 3,281$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,047.17 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed Yes | 19c | 3,280$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,662.97 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 31c | 3,213$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,212.92 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed Yes | 49c | 3,162$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 1c | 3,127$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 10c | 3,028$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.7 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.