Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70bd9bdcb09c9d58ce2f8be43174dbebf09af7385e44ee37420527607d637592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,127 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 43c | 21,045$9,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,041.02 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed Yes | 57c | 13,544$7,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,792.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…e049backed Yes | 61c | 2,895$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.05 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 4c | 749.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed Yes | 51c | 599.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +11.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 65c | 565.7$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.53 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 36c | 440.81$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.41 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 9c | 418.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 27c | 400$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c89…0177backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 5c | 245.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 6c | 199.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 175$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Yes | 50c | 135$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 18c | 127$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.01 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 20c | 100.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…df73backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 15c | 98.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…190ebacked Yes | 32c | 93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…f334backed Yes | 78c | 58.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73f…6523backed No | 48c | 56.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 51c | 51.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -8.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 18, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.