Middle East · resolved market
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf2c77d96b79f2a123ce85ae9c0796b1174c31b41f3c6696420cf73f311cc8c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ceasefireof Leadership Change, Ceasefire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Leadership Change | 1c | 14,153$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Leadership Change | 1c | 6,308$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Ceasefire | 55c | 3,493$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.53 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…e882backed Leadership Change | 1c | 3,053$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Ceasefire | 74c | 3,032$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.29 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Leadership Change | 2c | 2,444$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2475…9f77backed Ceasefire | 45c | 2,197$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…7ac8backed Leadership Change | 4c | 1,933$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…3c8abacked Leadership Change | 58c | 1,726$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Leadership Change | 35c | 1,458$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.8 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed Ceasefire | 53c | 1,355$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.33 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Leadership Change | 32c | 1,109$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.23 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Ceasefire | 75c | 1,049$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Leadership Change | 25c | 1,000$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda73…8e23backed Leadership Change | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Ceasefire | 41c | 946.64$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.52 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Leadership Change | 45c | 880.39$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Ceasefire | 44c | 848.91$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.66 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa988…ed6fbacked Leadership Change | 26c | 803.27$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…694ebacked Leadership Change | 32c | 773.67$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Leadership Change | 54c | 749.24$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.45 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…90c9backed Leadership Change | 2c | 744.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +523%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Leadership Change | 35c | 730.89$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.83 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Ceasefire | 50c | 707.42$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.97 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Ceasefire | 66c | 702.77$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.6 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked Ceasefire | 55c | 644.09$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.1 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…1f5dbacked Leadership Change | 23c | 617.64$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.36 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Leadership Change | 25c | 606.91$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.93 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Ceasefire | 68c | 573.28$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…8264backed Leadership Change | 26c | 572.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbd…d7a6backed Leadership Change | 53c | 560.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…68cfbacked Leadership Change | 37c | 527.89$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Ceasefire | 50c | 523.68$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.44 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Leadership Change | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Ceasefire | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed Ceasefire | 72c | 482.4$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Leadership Change | 49c | 412.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Leadership Change | 28c | 402.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Ceasefire | 64c | 399.38$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.78 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Leadership Change | 8c | 389.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…dec6backed Leadership Change | 49c | 370.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf2…fa7bbacked Leadership Change | 40c | 361.84$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Leadership Change | 45c | 352.37$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -7.3wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Leadership Change | 50c | 333.55$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.86 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…9abbbacked Leadership Change | 12c | 330.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Leadership Change | 24c | 325.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc220…21a8backed Leadership Change | 31c | 318.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb4…5927backed Leadership Change | 58c | 301.94$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Leadership Change | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Ceasefire | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Leadership Change | 30c | 298$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Leadership Change | 35c | 289.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Ceasefire | 56c | 285.94$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1da…de8bbacked Leadership Change | 22c | 280.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…108bbacked Ceasefire | 54c | 279.87$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…46a9backed Leadership Change | 38c | 260.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…459fbacked Leadership Change | 22c | 258.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +174.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Ceasefire | 59c | 254.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Leadership Change | 22c | 250$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Ceasefire | 51c | 249.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.49 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Leadership Change | 34c | 236$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.14 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Leadership Change | 50c | 216.52$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Ceasefire | 71c | 216.17$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…04a2backed Leadership Change | 47c | 211.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…107abacked Leadership Change | 51c | 207.84$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…621ebacked Leadership Change | 40c | 207.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Leadership Change | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed Ceasefire | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed Leadership Change | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…4305backed Ceasefire | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…ab80backed Leadership Change | 53c | 199.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Leadership Change | 24c | 198.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…5c19backed Leadership Change | 23c | 193.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Ceasefire | 55c | 189.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…d3bbbacked Ceasefire | 54c | 183.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Leadership Change | 48c | 179.14$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…69e3backed Leadership Change | 43c | 178.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b6…92f7backed Ceasefire | 78c | 176.48$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Ceasefire | 50c | 176.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x527f…886dbacked Leadership Change | 55c | 175.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…32a2backed Ceasefire | 69c | 174.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Leadership Change | 43c | 163.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Ceasefire | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…572abacked Leadership Change | 45c | 154.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c5…468dbacked Ceasefire | 48c | 141.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6494…c1b7backed Leadership Change | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…e1c8backed Leadership Change | 52c | 129.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Leadership Change | 31c | 129.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7278backed Ceasefire | 54c | 129.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dab…840bbacked Leadership Change | 29c | 122.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Leadership Change | 44c | 121.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Ceasefire | 49c | 116.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…866ebacked Leadership Change | 19c | 115.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Ceasefire | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…fcbfbacked Ceasefire | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…137ebacked Leadership Change | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Ceasefire | 50c | 105.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945f…8125backed Leadership Change | 48c | 104.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Ceasefire | 53c | 103.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ee…d693backed Leadership Change | 51c | 103$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.