Commodities · resolved market
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9753d8666a577fe44f5bd2cf386ecbefedb5bc884c5577532a33cb9fded3cdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $466,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $466,323 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0425…3c26backed Down | 0c | 77,196$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…0600backed Down | 4c | 74,783$3,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,136.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…e1e2backed Down | 0c | 66,651$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.32per pick | 10cpaid | +485.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Down | 1c | 66,305$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.16 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…b186backed Down | 1c | 44,899$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Down | 0c | 23,630$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…3b20backed Down | 6c | 17,016$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Down | 1c | 16,201$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -75%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…25dcbacked Down | 0c | 15,534$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…49febacked Down | 10c | 15,513$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…41a5backed Down | 1c | 8,433$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…bc24backed Down | 0c | 6,696$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a6…588bbacked Down | 8c | 6,505$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Down | 1c | 6,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x688d…9417backed Down | 0c | 6,103$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Down | 1c | 6,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80c…3e64backed Down | 1c | 5,824$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…d8b2backed Down | 74c | 3,710$2,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…50aebacked Down | 2c | 3,688$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf498…3bcbbacked Down | 3c | 3,590$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…f8e8backed Down | 0c | 3,470$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…1db9backed Up | 25c | 3,200$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.16 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Down | 3c | 3,085$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Down | 14c | 3,065$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.09 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Down | 6c | 3,003$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x869e…52c9backed Down | 1c | 2,779$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04a…af81backed Down | 1c | 2,750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…f690backed Down | 1c | 2,540$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb63…0a46backed Down | 0c | 2,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Down | 4c | 2,005$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…328fbacked Down | 1c | 1,955$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…a177backed Down | 1c | 1,526$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…e541backed Down | 1c | 1,405$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Down | 9c | 1,393$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf364…5f3abacked Down | 2c | 1,321$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Down | 2c | 1,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Down | 5c | 1,153$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Down | 4c | 1,003$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…03e0backed Down | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Down | 2c | 996.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…5a53backed Down | 6c | 908.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Up | 34c | 906.11$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.85 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Down | 2c | 820.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e58…eb1cbacked Down | 2c | 694.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…6e45backed Down | 3c | 690.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…4170backed Down | 8c | 599.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…16a3backed Down | 6c | 534.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Down | 6c | 499.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed Down | 4c | 469.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Up | 40c | 445$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.25 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f4…a99fbacked Down | 3c | 410.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Down | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba8…e4e4backed Down | 3c | 377.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…65c9backed Down | 6c | 350.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Down | 10c | 317.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…eee9backed Down | 4c | 300.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…5a04backed Up | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c8…1ed4backed Down | 13c | 277.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…5e88backed Down | 10c | 254.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7160…5545backed Up | 30c | 231.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…523cbacked Down | 8c | 226.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 10c | 224.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Up | 38c | 220$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb432…2bbfbacked Down | 11c | 188$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…9822backed Down | 13c | 181.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…0468backed Up | 55c | 173.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Down | 18c | 158.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Up | 28c | 158$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Down | 10c | 153$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…4ff5backed Down | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Down | 11c | 148.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…ed49backed Down | 14c | 146.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…28e1backed Up | 65c | 125.49$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa563…6a3ebacked Down | 16c | 124.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Down | 10c | 122.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed Up | 45c | 122.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Up | 36c | 103.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +123%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3287…5486backed Up | 70c | 68.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ca…3c87backed Up | 22c | 66.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Down | 71c | 53.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Up | 64c | 48.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…c8c3backed Up | 63c | 47.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…8932backed Up | 50c | 40.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…a597backed Up | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…d8ccbacked Down | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed Down | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…c042backed Up | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12c…d30fbacked Up | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.