Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x839e92d797b99fdcfea614b1629f71388af3b5e55829963554dc18f956cf3eb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 10c | 23,605$2,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…29bdbacked No | 9c | 13,333$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe700…bcf8backed No | 8c | 10,860$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 8c | 7,014$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 6c | 6,588$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.29 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9114…3568backed No | 8c | 6,541$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 6c | 5,701$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed No | 10c | 5,294$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 6c | 5,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed No | 12c | 4,692$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 8c | 4,455$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 6c | 4,352$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.05 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 8c | 4,268$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.4 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed No | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fec…3be3backed No | 8c | 3,795$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 8c | 3,721$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.7 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 3,536$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 14c | 2,885$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 6c | 2,540$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.8 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 9c | 2,512$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.38 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8931…a90cbacked No | 8c | 2,133$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 9c | 1,911$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 9c | 1,523$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 12c | 1,518$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 1,375$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.7 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…9002backed No | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…97a2backed No | 7c | 1,275$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 10c | 1,256$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 8c | 1,195$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 5c | 1,104$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 9c | 1,021$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 5c | 999.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 10c | 963$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 11c | 921$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 735$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 6c | 719$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 7c | 709.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 6c | 661.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 600$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked No | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 11c | 375.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 13c | 357.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 7c | 353.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 7c | 299.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 268$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 12c | 240.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…eedebacked No | 9c | 239.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 13c | 231.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 12c | 223.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 220.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…4258backed No | 10c | 217.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…a849backed No | 10c | 213.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 8c | 200.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…7d42backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…23a0backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed Yes | 79c | 186.33$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 9c | 177.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed No | 10c | 158.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f0…b56fbacked No | 12c | 158$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 10c | 152.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 19c | 148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 10c | 135.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 13c | 128.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 13c | 124$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 13c | 123.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 12c | 108.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3a…9935backed No | 10c | 107.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…a9fdbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 98.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 33c | 36.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?this page
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?No won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.