Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d8882818248beeb8072ba2ea6469e8b87a7592afae9ef679ca9431722ce7eca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 4c | 19,045$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…43eebacked Yes | 3c | 10,455$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,499$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.37 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 5,184$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fec…3be3backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 2c | 3,800$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8931…a90cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,635$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…7ddabacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,906$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 2,337$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,758$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…10a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,695$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +415.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 2c | 1,569$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 4c | 1,308$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 2c | 1,188$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,101$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 647.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 2c | 529.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x825c…dfa0backed Yes | 3c | 388.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 4c | 360.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…d5ebbacked Yes | 5c | 230$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?this page
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?No won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.