TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,396
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,396 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x564f…7026backed Yes34c1,223$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.836945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43f7…35e5backed Yes34c684$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.562231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes20c662.99$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.37946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No65c610$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.95733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes36c500$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.173721.6%8 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No63c436$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.4816418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes41c404.93$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6345738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes39c373.62$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.418047.5%38 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c351$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.777448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c342.35$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6529430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No78c285.39$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.695440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes24c279.01$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.961020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes41c220$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.212533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c210$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.638547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No75c208$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.966647%31 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c180.62$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1919432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes32c180$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.42133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No66c162.4$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.224938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c160$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.848942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No79c142$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.088150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes21c123.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8932228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8673…4025backed Yes42c119.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507135.2%25 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed Yes42c117.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.782055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-83.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-76.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes46c95.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.932832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-55.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No63c87$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.297943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No72c85$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.657041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No72c83.73$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.74831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2191…628ebacked No65c83.02$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes21c81.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3589317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No68c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264346.5%20 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No61c79.6$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.048435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No72c79.45$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5928826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No63c79.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.364042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes15c78.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5222019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes36c61.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.418033.8%27 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.58741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x270a…4246backed Yes35c59.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.991643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No72c55.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.584946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No76c50.03$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.011346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No71c44.55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8615047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe76b…15c2backed No57c42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1818544.3%82 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea34…5630backed Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.93837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-46.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7244…2aafbacked No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7843…fd3cbacked Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.65843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No63c29.25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.822045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed Yes43c27.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.793545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c20.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.247938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.