AI · resolved market
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16790113f600c016210879cdadd50bde7a64c4db32a0223fdb71746c932f5d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 18c | 2,374$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.02 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,129$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.66 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 28c | 703.61$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.61 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 539.32$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.85 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 32c | 500$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.35 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 435.26$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.46 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 285.39$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…d8debacked Yes | 11c | 269.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 70c | 225$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…17adbacked Yes | 46c | 218.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 210$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 59c | 208$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 41c | 187.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 180.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 14c | 180$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 28c | 180$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 46c | 173.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 39c | 131$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 129$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 128$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 56c | 108$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 165 | 19.4%32 W · 133 L | -21.3wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 106$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 93.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…379dbacked Yes | 12c | 88.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 55c | 87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 46c | 77.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 76.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 72.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 68.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 45c | 63.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 48c | 61.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 59.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 57c | 57.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…42e9backed Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…97c2backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…7273backed Yes | 40c | 45.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 24c | 44.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 40.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 75c | 40.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…aaf7backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…f20fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…4246backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…5630backed No | 62c | 39.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…403ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 38.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…d0e5backed Yes | 37c | 37.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 58c | 30.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 44c | 30.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 44c | 30.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…4c7cbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 44c | 29.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 56c | 29.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 44c | 29.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed Yes | 43c | 29.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…c0aebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?this page
- Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $3.00 on July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.