Commodities · resolved market
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3cf0a627071de9666f80d0821eb461852cb3024ed472d06151aac80889d25c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb65…309bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,530$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…1774backed Yes | 45c | 763.83$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +255.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 39c | 484.92$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.13 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 420$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.58 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 32c | 408.58$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 399.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…b44fbacked Yes | 53c | 375.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 54c | 338$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.35 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 305$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 283.34$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 245$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 240.75$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.77 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 211.73$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 30c | 203.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Yes | 50c | 202$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…48d0backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 51c | 198$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 196.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 29c | 147$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3320…c9e7backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 46c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 46c | 84.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 52c | 78.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 68.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…b9f4backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…144bbacked Yes | 51c | 42.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +185%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 56c | 41.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…1c91backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 36c | 36.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 50c | 36.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 56c | 36.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 31.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 30.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…496bbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 25.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 25.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 50c | 20.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…b106backed Yes | 56c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 60c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…95a0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedcb…54b1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…4304backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 59c | 17.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?Yes won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.