Commodities · resolved market
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d7b2c23eb5806fbb1ef3ed0ed2151a85cc2c53ab2ff557842c05d575906be69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 67c | 5,000$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,349.99 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b48…21b2backed Yes | 7c | 4,905$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,559.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +676.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 31c | 3,247$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,246.7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 23c | 2,926$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244.76 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 18c | 2,702$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.64 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 74c | 2,676$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.68 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 35c | 2,429$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.57 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 33c | 1,808$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 1,783$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.23 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…1774backed Yes | 8c | 1,240$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +255.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…8678backed Yes | 20c | 1,231$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…309bbacked Yes | 11c | 963.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 36c | 870.29$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 17c | 687.25$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed No | 6c | 520.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 509.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 6c | 506.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.62 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 76c | 467$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.14 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed No | 77c | 397.16$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 18c | 382.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.75 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 294$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.75 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 277$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.32 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 10c | 241.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.97 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 19c | 241$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.55 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 24c | 220.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Yes | 9c | 202$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca7…5d82backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed Yes | 29c | 194.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 19c | 184.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.69 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 57c | 183$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Yes | 39c | 179.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 21c | 160$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 143$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 77c | 137.85$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Yes | 18c | 132.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Yes | 17c | 116.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +483.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…f4a0backed Yes | 35c | 113.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 20c | 79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 71.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…b106backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…17d4backed Yes | 55c | 44.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6e…fdb4backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 53c | 26.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 26.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 55c | 20.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 75c | 20.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.